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#4 Tennessee vs Arkansas: NCAA Football Predictions & Best Bets (10/5)

Written by: Nate Hornung

Last Updated:

Read Time: 6 minutes

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Saturday, Oct 57:30pm ET

Tennessee Volunteers Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-13.5

-110

-110o

-505

Arkansas Razorbacks Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

+13.5

-102

-110u

+425

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The Razorbacks host the Volunteers this Saturday Night in Fayetteville as Tennessee plays Arkansas on ABC. This SEC Showdown features the undefeated Vols coming off a bye week, looking to roll their momentum into this second part of the season. Tennessee beat Oklahoma in Norman to begin SEC play, knocking off the Sooners 25-15, welcoming them into the conference. As for Arkansas, this season has been more of the Heartbreak Hogs.

Arkansas is 3-2 on the year, with a big win at Auburn a couple weeks ago. However, their losses have been devastating. In Week 2, the Razorbacks went into Stillwater and dominated the Pokes all game long. They led 21-7 at halftime, but allowed 18 4th quarter points as the Cowboys forced OT, and eventually won the ball game. Last weekend, more heartbreak, this time at home. The Hogs competed with #24 ranked Texas A&M, scoring on their first two drives and jumping out to an early 14-7 lead. However they failed to put up much offense in the 2nd half, scoring just 3 points in the 4th quarter, and losing 21-17 to the Aggies.

Hogs Offensive Struggles

Despite running for over 100 yards per game and nearly 6.5 per carry, Hogs RB Ja’Quinden Jackson was held to just 37 yards on 10 carries even though he found the end zone. The Aggies rushing defense is the truth, and Tennessee’s is just as good. The Volunteers allowed 36 total rushing yards to the Sooners two weekends ago, and you want to know the crazy part? They did that on 34 rush attempts. The Volunteers held Oklahoma to 1.06 yards per carry, making them look absolutely foolish.

The Razorbacks will certainly have to move the ball through the air, but are they capable of doing so? Or will the Volunteers dominate Arkansas and continue rolling this season?

Tennessee vs Arkansas: Heartbreak Hogs Host Vols

Jackson is the lead back for this Arkansas team

Utah Transfer, Ja’Quinden Jackson is running for over 100 yards per game for the Hogs

Matchup Information – Tennessee vs Arkansas

Venue & Location: Razorback Stadium (Fayetteville, AR)
Date: Saturday, October 5th, 2024
Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
Broadcast: ABC

Betting Odds

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Spread

Tennessee -13.5 (-118)
Arkansas +13.5 (-102)

Money Line

Tennessee -505
Arkansas +400

Total

Over 58 (-110)
Under 58 (-110)

Volunteers Head to Fayetteville to Tame the Hogs

Nico Iamaleava leads the Volunteers into Fayetteville on Saturday Night

Can the Volunteers handle business at Arkansas this weekend?

Tennessee has rolled over all of their opponents. They are scoring 54 points per game, only allowing 7 per contest, and show no signs of slowing down. This will be a very tough matchup for the Hogs, considering the fact that Tennessee is coming off a bye. The Volunteers are well rested, just faced a tough Oklahoma defense and put up 25 points, and now you have to try and slow them down. Good luck, Arkansas, but I don’t think it will go well.

Vols Offense is Rolling

Nico Iamaleava isn’t off to the scorching start like everyone thought, but he is still playing incredible football. He’s completing 69% of his passes, throwing for over 200 yards per game, and has 7 TDs with 2 picks this season. The Volunteers’ running game has taken lots of pressure off the young QB, allowing him to succeed in all aspects of the game. Like I mention, Tennessee’s rushing defense is also incredible.

Despite jumping out to a TD lead against Texas A&M, the Razorbacks did not utilize their RB like they should. Jackson only saw 10 carries for 37 yards, and I see him having a tough day against the Volunteers, even at home. As for the Hogs rushing defense, they allow over 100 yards per game and nearly 4 yards per rush. With the tandem backs of Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop, the Vols should be able to pound the ground in Fayetteville. I see Tennessee having success early, causing Arkansas to play from behind.

What does this mean? Taylen Green will be airing it out, abandoning the run, although I don’t see them having much success on the ground anyways. Let’s discuss why I’m putting 2 units on a player prop under.

Tennessee Volunteers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Best Bets

Jackson is going to have a rough day at the office on Saturday

Ja’Quinden Jackson faces a tough Aggies rushing defense on Saturday

Tennessee vs Arkansas Prediction: Tennessee Wins & Covers, Under 58.5

Best Bets: Ja’Quinden Jackson Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline

What on Earth are we doing? This guy is averaging 100 plus yards per game, nearly 6.5 yards per rush, and is coming off a very bad game. So we’re fading him? Exactly.

Jackson had a bad game against the Aggies (10 carries for 37 yards and a TD), because they have one of the best rushing defenses in the country, but let’s compare them to Tennessee’s.

Texas A&M Rushing Defense: 110 rushing yards allowed per game, 3.9 yards per rush
Tennessee Rushing Defense: 43 rushing yards allowed per game, 1.4 yards per rush

See what I mean? The Volunteers force teams to throw the ball against them, and even then, they have little success. The way Tennessee picks up chunk yardage and scores quickly in bunches forces teams to try and keep up. They are tough to slow down, so instead, coaches will abandon the run, and try play catch up through the air. The Vols have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in every single game, less than 50 in 3 games, and do a great job of stacking the box, forcing inexperienced QBs to beat them with their arms. I like the Volunteers to roll in this game, and I’ve got 2 units that say Jackson has a bad day on the football field.

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Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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