UNC vs. Wake Forest Football Betting: Will the Tar Heels clinch the Coastal Division title in Winston-Salem?

The last two North Carolina vs. Wake Forest matchups were two of the wildest college football games in recent memory. Will we be treated to another scintillating shootout on Saturday in Winston-Salem?

In 2020, the Demon Deacons led 45-24 with 6:56 left in the third quarter, but Sam Howell and the Tar Heels proceeded to score 35 straight points as they rallied for a 59-53 win in Chapel Hill.

Last year, Wake went into Chapel Hill undefeated, and it looked like they would leave with their perfect record intact. With 7:38 left in the third quarter, they led UNC 45-27. But just like the previous year, things unraveled for the Demon Deacons, as 24 fourth-quarter points helped Howell and the Heels pull off a 58-55 win.

So, it’s safe to say that this year’s matchup has quite a lot to live up to. First one to 50 wins again?

#15 North Carolina Tar Heels (8-1, 5-0 ACC, 1st in the ACC Coastal) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-3, 2-3 ACC, 6th in the ACC Atlantic) Matchup Information

• Venue & Location: Truist Field at Wake Forest (Winston-Salem, North Carolina)
• Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
• How to Watch UNC vs. Wake Forest: ESPN2

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, November 11.

Spread

• North Carolina +4.5 (-114)
• Wake Forest -4.5 (-106)

Over/Under

• Over 77.5 (-110)
• Under 77.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• North Carolina +158
• Wake Forest -192

Can Wake Play Spoiler to Salvage Disappointing Season?

A two-overtime loss to Clemson in September was a real missed opportunity. But until a few weeks ago, it was Wake’s only blemish, and they headed into a visit to Louisville ranked in the top ten.

But after going into halftime with a 14-13 lead, the Demon Deacons turned the ball six times–including two pick-sixes–and were outscored 35-0 in the third quarter.

Things didn’t get any better last week as they outgained NC State by almost 100 yards but fell 30-21 in Raleigh. Again, turnovers were a killer, as Sam Hartman was picked off three more times after being picked off three times at Louisville.

Until the last two games, Hartman had done a great job of avoiding the mistakes and ups and downs that had previously been an issue at times.

After throwing 14 picks last year–including two costly picks in the loss at North Carolina–he had only three in his first six games this season. Two of those three were in Wake’s nail-biting win over Liberty early in the season.

Along with the interception bug returning to bite him, Hartman was sacked seven times against Louisville and four times against NC State. Three of the sacks against the Cardinals resulted in lost fumbles and the other three turnovers in that catastrophic third quarter.

While Louisville is one of the nation’s leaders in interceptions and sacks and NC State is one of the nation’s leaders in interceptions, UNC isn’t either one of those.

So, that is encouraging for a bounce-back performance for Hartman. But will he do enough to outduel rising Heisman Trophy candidate Drake Maye?

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest QB Comparison

• Drake Maye (UNC): 222 of 312 (71.2%), 2964 yards (9.5 yards per attempt), 31 TD, 3 INT passing; 114 attempts, 513 rushing yards (4.5 yards per attempt), 4 TD rushing
• Sam Hartman (Wake Forest): 173 of 276 (62.7%), 2423 yards (8.8 yards per attempt), 24 TD, 9 INT passing; 33 rushing yards, one TD rushing

While things are trending down for Hartman at the moment, they are trending way, way up for Maye.

The redshirt freshman’s streak of 300-yard games ended at five at Virginia last Saturday, but he had another outstanding performance in the Tar Heels’ 31-28 win in Charlottesville. He was 26 of 37 for 293 yards and two scores and ran for 74 yards and a touchdown on 16 attempts.

Drake Maye out here doing Drake Maye things ?‍♂️

? https://t.co/b7TfBtUL5S (ACC Network) pic.twitter.com/0ZmskTIPyw

— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) November 5, 2022

Maye currently has the sixth-best Heisman odds at BetOnline (+1200), but those odds will continue to shorten if he keeps putting up big numbers and the Tar Heels keep winning. He may well not win the award this year, but he is setting himself up to be the favorite next year.

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: UNC to win

Following a couple of rough weeks on the road, I think Hartman will have a much better performance at home.

But I really like the trajectory that the Tar Heels are on. Yes, there is plenty to be said about the quality of the Coastal Division, where Duke, not Pitt (meh), Miami (bad), or even Virginia (awful), is the division’s second-best team.

Since letting things get away from them in a seven-minute stretch of game time in a home loss to Notre Dame, North Carolina has reeled off five straight wins. In that win streak, they have averaged 35.8 PPG and 492.4 yards per game.

Wake’s offense, not defense, was the reason for its downfall against Louisville and NC State. That said, I don’t expect their D to provide much resistance when it matters in another shootout win for UNC.

Best Bets

• North Carolina to cover (Best Value: +4.5 @ -110 at BetMGM)
• UNC ML (Best Value: +158 at BetOnline & Bovada Sportsbook)
• UNC/Wake Forest over (Best Value: over 76.5 @ -110 at BetMGM)

Other College Football Content on Betting News

• ECU vs. Cincinnati Prediction & Best Bets
• UCF vs. Tulane Prediction & Best Bets