Vanderbilt vs Kentucky: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | October 12, 2024

This week, all eyes are on Kentucky as they prepare to face Vanderbilt in Week 7, who recently pulled off a historic upset over No. 7 Alabama. With both teams facing potential letdowns, this matchup is ripe for intrigue. Join me as we break down the key factors at play and uncover why Kentucky might just be the smart bet this week!

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College football 2024: 18-18-1 (+3.28 Units)

Week 6 college football: 3-3 (-0.67 Units)

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Odds

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Football games.

Spread

Vanderbilt: +14.0 (-110)

Kentucky: -14.0(-110)

Total

Over: 46.0 (-110)

Under: 46.0 (-110)

Moneyline

Vanderbilt: +460

Kentucky: -600

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your 2024 college football futures picks today at BetOnline

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Predictions

There’s no need to beat around the bush about why it’s Kentucky this week. We all saw it on Saturday: Vanderbilt upset No. 1 Alabama 40-35, marking their first top five victory in their 126-year existence. The Vanderbilt fans stormed the field (as they should), tore down the goalposts, and carried them two miles to toss it in the river. That win will be talked about for decades! Talk about a classic letdown spot for Alabama after their huge win over Georgia the week before. But let’s not forget that Vanderbilt could also be facing a letdown in week 7.

We’ve seen this before—like NIU upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend—big wins often lead to regression the following week. While NIU didn’t have the home field advantage to storm the field, their coach did shed some tears, which ties into my fading the storm theory. I live and die by this system, and so far this season it’s 2-1-1 (+1.07 units).

LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 6:

Vandy > Bama 1.8% (!!!!)
ULM > JMU 19.7%
Cuse > UNLV 25.4%
Ark St > USA 32.7%
Ore St > Colo St 39.9%
Wake > NCST 44.0%
SDSU > Hawaii 44.7%

Full list here. What a week. https://t.co/w7ALlZmjBl

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 6, 2024

Now, there’s an argument that both Vanderbilt and Kentucky could experience a letdown, especially since the Wildcats just pulled off an upset over No. 6 Ole Miss in Oxford as 15-point underdogs. However, Kentucky has been playing exceptional ball lately. Despite a one-point loss to Georgia three weeks ago, they’ve won two straight and covered in all three of their last games, including a 35-point blowout against Ohio and a five-point win over Ole Miss.

This Wildcats team ranks fifth in the nation in yards allowed per game (244.2) and is holding opponents to under two touchdowns a game (13.4 OPPG). Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s defense is struggling, giving up 32 points and over 430 yards per game on the road.

The last time Vanderbilt beat Kentucky at Kroger Field was in 2022 when they were 17-point underdogs and won 24-21. Last year, when the matchup was in Nashville, Kentucky took the win 45-28. Now, head coach Mark Stoops can motivate his team to bring the Commodores back down to Earth after their big win and avenge that home loss from two years ago.

For transparency, I got Kentucky at -11.5, so if you like this play, I recommend betting on them now. I wouldn’t want to rely on this Kentucky team to win by more than two touchdowns, even though they’re good enough—just make sure to get the best number possible!

Prediction: Kentucky Wins & Covers

Best Bet: Kentucky (-14.0) on BetOnline

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