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#5 Washington vs #11 Oregon State, Prediction: Martinez Runs Over Huskies
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The Pac-12 has a great matchup in Corvallis this Saturday, as the Oregon State Beavers host the Washington Huskies. The Beavers are currently 11th, while the Huskies are ranked 5th in the country.
Michael Penix Jr is looking to sneak the Huskies into the College Football Playoff, but that would probably require perfection from here on out.
The Huskies play this game and then host the Washington State Cougars next weekend, with a probably matchup with the Oregon Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship. Again, assuming this all goes to plan.
But the Beavers are 8-2 overall, and 5-2 in the conference. The Beavers could win out and weasel their way into a 2nd matchup with the Huskies.
Either way, we have a great matchup on Saturday, so let’s find our best bets!
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Washington vs Oregon State Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Reser Stadium (Corvallis, OR)
- Date: Saturday, November 18th 2023
- Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Betting Odds
Spread
- Washington +1 (-110)
- Oregon State -1 (-110)
Moneyline
- Washington -105
- Oregon State -115
Total
- Over 62.5 (-110)
- Under 62.5 (-110)
Free NCAAF Picks: Washington vs Oregon State
Can Penix Jr lead the Huskies to a perfect season?
The Huskies are the 5th highest scoring offense in College Football, putting up 41 points per game, and 43 in their L3. Lucky for them, that number even jumps to 41.5 on the road.
Now the Beavers aren’t far behind, ranking 14th, scoring 36 points of their own, plus, they are coming off a game where they scored 62 against Stanford.
Oregon State is undefeated at home, winning every game by at least 8 points, including wins over #18 UCLA and #10 Utah.
Both defenses allow about 23 PPG, however the Huskies D has been exposed for an average of 34.3 points in their L3. Plus, they allow closer to 27 PPG on the road.
The Beavers defense gives up just two touchdowns at Reser Stadium, so Washington will have to get creative and find ways to score.
All in all, this is going to be a hell of a game. I did find one prop I like.
Free NCAAF Prop Bets: Player Props
Damien Martinez over 103.5 Rushing Yards (-113) Bovada
I know what you’re thinking, that’s a whole lot of yards. And you’re right.
He’s only cleared this line in 4/10 games this year, but he has had a game with 102 yards. (He also had one with 104, for transparency).
Regardless, I think he gets plenty of carries in this game.
Martinez averages 102.4 yards per game on just 15.5 carries. He’s very shifty, efficient, and can make defenders look foolish.
Throughout the season, Martinez has averaged 7.1 Yards per Carry, however he’s coming off a game in which he put up 9.7 yards.
Now, this Huskies rushing defense is not that great. They give up 140.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 50th amongst FBS teams, plus that number is up to 150 in their L3 games.
Washington also gives up 4.4 Yards per Attempt, ranking 83rd with that number jumping to 5.1 in their L3 games.
Martinez is a solo back, who doesn’t compete for carries. I sort of like the Beavers to pull of this upset, meaning he should get some extra carries and yards to push this one over.
Martinez has a 20+ yard rush in 6 games this season, and has busted off at least a 12 yard run in all 10 games.
I think this line is set here for a reason, yet I still think it’s slightly too low.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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