West Virginia vs Pittsburgh: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/14)

Two schools that absolutely hate each other face off in a classic rivalry on Saturday, as the West Virginia Mountaineers take on the Pittsburgh Panthers in the Backyard Brawl. Since revamping this series, the teams have played each other the past two seasons, with the home team winning both contests. In 2022, Pittsburgh beat West Virginia 38-31 in a Thursday Night thriller to start both of their seasons as JT Daniels couldn’t get the victory. However last year, the Mountaineers got their revenge, winning 17-6 as neither QB threw for over 100 yards in that matchup.

The Backyard Brawl History

The teams only combined for 422 total yards and 4 total turnovers as it was quite a sloppy, defensive game. Now both teams have revamped personnel on both sides of the ball, but neither has looked too great this year. West Virginia was blown out by Penn State in their opener at home, and they really failed to move the ball. They only produced 246 yards and 12 points as they had 3 total turnovers to the Nittany Lions defense, which admittedly is not as good as Pittsburgh’s. The next game, West Virginia turned it on and blew out Albany, but now they face a hostile road opponent.

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The Panthers handled business against Kent State, and had a miraculous comeback on the road against Cincinnati. They were down 27-6 with less than 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and things looked grim. Low and behold, they scored 22 unanswered points, including 15 in the 4th quarter to seal the game with a 35 yard field goal with 17 seconds left. But in the grand scheme of things, it’s just Cincinnati. They aren’t going to be good in the Big 12, the Mountaineers will certainly be better, but at least Pittsburgh is at home this weekend.

Will they be able to create some offense against West Virginia? Or will the Mountaineers take down Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl?

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West Virginia vs Pittsburgh: The Backyard Brawl

Matchup Information – West Virginia vs Pittsburgh

• Venue & Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)
• Date: Saturday, September 14th, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN2

Betting Odds

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Spread

• West Virginia -2 (-107)
• Pittsburgh +2 (-113)

Money Line

• West Virginia -125
• Pittsburgh +105

Total

• Over 64.5 (-110)
• Under 64.5 (-110)

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Can Mountaineers Move Ball Against Panthers?

The problem for the Mountaineers is Week 1 was their complete failure to move the ball. They had 125 yards on the ground from RB CJ Donaldson Jr., but otherwise the offense was very stagnant. Sure they came alive against Albany, but had they not, I would’ve been all over Pittsburgh. While the Panthers defense isn’t anything to write home about, they’ve held their opponents to under 300 total yards in both contests. Clearly they can play as they held the Bearcats scoreless in the final 20 minutes to steal a victory on the road. Back at home where they can make Greene’s life hell, I could see the Panthers defense shutting him down.

Eli Holstein has been an incredibly consistent QB for the Panthers. He’s got a 67% completion percentage along with over 300 yards and 3 TDs in each game. Yes, he’s also thrown an interception in both contests, but he had 189 passing yards in their 4th quarter comeback last Saturday. I am confident in him to be able to move the ball at home against the Mountaineers defense. West Virginia didn’t disrupt Drew Allar at all, as he threw for 216 yards and 3 TDs without any trouble.

Panthers Rushing Attack

Pittsburgh also has the ability to pound the ground, as Desmond Reid has seen 33 carries for nearly 300 yards so far this year. He’s posted 145 yards in both games, averaging roughly 9 yards per carry. He’s also a threat to catch the ball, as he has 9 receptions for 117 yards and a TD on the season already as well. Point being, I think the Panthers have more weapons on offense than the Mountaineers, and at home in this rivalry game, I trust them to get the job done.

While I won’t give them too much praise for beating Cincinnati, Pittsburgh did build some momentum going into this rivalry game on Saturday. I think they will ride that high on both sides of the ball, playing with plenty of confidence in order to get their revenge from last season.

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West Virginia vs Pittsburgh Best Bets

West Virginia vs Pittsburgh Prediction: Pittsburgh Wins, Under 64.5

Best Bets: WV/Pitt Under 64.5 (-110) BetOnline

While I do think defense dominates this game, I could see it being one sided. I’ll be the first to tell you that I think the Big 12 is much tougher than the ACC, but in this instance, I’ve got to back the home team. Not only have they won this rivalry two years in a row, the home team on Saturday is coming off a confidence building win. After coming back down 21 to win, the Panthers will ride that high for as long as they can, and into a rivalry game I think they bring a different energy.

Plus, they will have no problem facing Youngstown State next week, which should be an easy win for Pittsburgh. All their focus will be on this game against the Mountaineers. As for West Virginia, they may be caught in a look ahead spot. After taking down Albany to build come confidence of their own, they have a road rivalry game this Saturday, and host the Jayhawks the following week before going in a bye. The Mountaineers may be more worried about hosting a conference opponent early next Saturday as opposed to facing the opponent at hand. This could also be considering Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl, as they don’t stand much of a chance in the ACC, while there may be part of West Virginia that thinks they could win some of their Big 12 games.

In a rivalry game, with the home team catching two points, I’ll tell the books to keep them and take the ML as well. Give me plus money for the Panthers at home, in a nitty gritty, low scoring game.

Bonus Bets: Pittsburgh ML (+110) Bovada

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