Bengals vs Buccaneers Prediction & Picks: Is the outlook ominous for Brady & the Bucs?

After being roughed up by the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to face another one of the NFL’s hottest teams this Sunday with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals visiting Raymond James Stadium.

The Bengals (9-4, 4-3 away) picked up their fifth straight win last Sunday as they downed the rival Browns 23-10 at home.

Sunday’s matchup with the Bucs (6-7, 4-3 home) kickstarts a final stretch in which Cincinnati will visit Brady’s current team and Brady’s former team before finishing up with the current favorite to win the Super Bowl (the Buffalo Bills) and their rival for the AFC South title (the Baltimore Ravens) at home.

For the Bucs, this is the toughest game that they have left, which is a good thing for their hopes to close out the NFC South title, which they should still win because they are the best of a really bad bunch.

With where the two teams are at the moment, it’s no surprise to see Cincinnati favored. But will they back it up and extend their win streak to six games? Read on for our Bengals vs Buccaneers prediction, along with our favorite betting picks for Sunday’s showdown.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, December 15, 2022, at 4:55 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 43.5 (-118)
• Under 43.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• Cincinnati Bengals -198
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +166

Opposing Results Point to a Bengals Win

The Bengals may not be lighting up the scoreboard on a weekly basis, but the magic number for them on Sunday will be 21.

Sunday’s 23-10 win over the Browns was the eighth time this NFL season that Cincinnati has scored 21+ points this season, and they have yet to lose when they do.

Dating back to last season, the Bengals are 19-4 (17-4 in the regular season and 2-0 in last season’s run to the Super Bowl) when scoring 21+ points.

If they can reach that number against the Buccaneers, a win is highly, highly likely. Sunday’s shellacking by the 49ers was the fifth time this season that the Bucs have allowed 21+ points, and they have lost all five games.

Also, reaching that number themselves continues to be an issue for Tampa Bay. Since a 27-22 loss to the Ravens in Week 8, the Bucs have scored 21+ points just once in five games, the 21-16 win over the Seahawks in Munich in Week 10.

Further to that, the Bengals typically come out on the winning side when they allow fewer than 21 points. Over the last two seasons, they are 13-3 when allowing fewer than 21 points (and 3-1 when allowing exactly 21 points, FWIW).

This is also the Bengals’ last game this season against the NFC South and the Bucs’ last game against the AFC North. Cincinnati is 3-0 against the NFC South, while the Bucs are 0-3 against the AFC North.

Cincinnati’s Results vs the NFC South This Season

• at New Orleans Saints (Week 6): won 30-26
• vs Atlanta Falcons (Week 7): won 35-17
• vs Carolina Panthers (Week 9): won 42-21

Tampa Bay’s Results Against the AFC North This Season

• at Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 6): lost 20-18
• vs Baltimore Ravens (Week 8): lost 27-22
• at Cleveland Browns (Week 12): lost 23-17 (OT)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Picks

Bengals vs Buccaneers Prediction: Bengals to win

Bengals vs Buccaneers Picks: Bengals -3.5 & Bengals team total over (Best Value: over 23.5 @ -120 at BetOnline & Bovada Sportsbook)

The trends are certainly all in favor of Cincinnati, but more than anything, based on where both of these teams are currently, it’s hard to see anything other than a win for the reigning AFC champs.

Of the Bengals’ nine wins this season, only the Week 13 win over the Kansas City Chiefs was decided by fewer than four points, so I am fully on board with backing them to cover against the Buccaneers.

That said, if you do have some pause about taking the -3.5, you should absolutely buy down to -3. At the time of writing, the -3.5 is available at the same number at all of our recommended sportsbooks, but if you want to buy down to -3, your best option is BetMGM.

Also, if the Bengals win, I feel equally as confident in the over on their team total. They have scored a lot of points in their other games against NFC South opposition, and they have scored 24+ points seven times in their nine wins.

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