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NFL Christmas Day Best Bets: December 25th, 2023
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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We’ve got three games on Monday for some NFL on Christmas Day, and we have our best bets in all three games below!
The games are spread perfectly throughout the day, and we’ve got some good matchups.
Starting off, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. Then the New York Giants face the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial.
And lastly, some Monday Night Football out in Santa Clara as the Baltimore Ravens travel to face the San Francisco 49ers.
We are in for a heck of a slate on Christmas Day, so let’s get into it!
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NFL Christmas Day Preview
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
- Date: Monday, December 25th, 2023
- Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Betting Odds
- Raiders +10 (+100)
- Chiefs -10 (-120)
- Over/Under 40.5
The Pick: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-125) Get These Odds and a Deposit Bonus @ Bovada
Call it a homer pick, whatever you have to, but this line is incredibly low. Far too low for Kelce against the Raiders.
He’s cleared this line in 9/13 games on the season and 5 of 6 at home, clearing in 3 of his L5, and catching 5 of 7 targets last week.
The Chiefs need to win out to have a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC, so they will be coming out with everything they’ve got, and I like Mahomes and Kelce to link up very often.
Kelce excels against the Raiders. Three weeks ago in Las Vegas he caught 6 of 7 targets for 91 yards.
In 11 career games against the Raiders with Mahomes throwing to him, Kelce has:
- 6+ Receptions in 8/11 (5 Catches twice)
- 6+ Recs in 6/L7
- Avg 6.8 Recs on 8.9 Targets
Kelce has cleared this line in 9 straight games at Arrowhead Stadium, and 13 of his L14 in Kansas City.
I am playing this for 2U as this line is embarrassingly low for his performance against Las Vegas.
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
- Date: Monday, December 25th, 2023
- Kick Off: 4:30pm Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
Betting Odds
- Giants +13 (-105)
- Eagles -13 (-115)
- Over/Under 43
The Pick: NYG/PHI Under 43 (-105) Get These Odds and a Deposit Bonus @ Bovada
In this afternoon game on Monday, I think we see the Philly defense come to play and really shut down this Giants offense.
Tommy Devito has seen his magic dwindle, and even against the Eagles secondary, I’m not sure they’re able to move the ball.
The Giants score just 13.5 PPG this season, and that number is down in the L3 games.
Philly has dropped three straight games, scoring just 16.3 Points in those contests, so their offense is a little iffy right now.
While these defensive numbers aren’t great, ultimately I do not trust the Giants offense to be able to produce.
Give me the Eagles winning this low scoring affair, 24-14.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
- Date: Monday, December 25th, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Betting Odds
- Ravens +5.5 (-105)
- 49ers -5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under 47.5
The Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110) Get These Odds and a Deposit Bonus @ Bovada
I lean with the Niners in this game, so Baltimore should need to throw the ball more than normal in this one. More passing attempts equals more chances Lamar lets one slip away.
He’s thrown a pick in 6 games this season, including a game with 2 INTs. Plus, he has had one in each of his L2 games and 3 of his L5 on the road.
Now, the San Francisco 49ers lead the league in Turnovers and Interceptions with 19 Picks this season. Forcing 1.4 INTs per game, they’ve snagged 2 in each of their L2 games.
They’ve also forced a pick in 11 of 14 games this season, forcing multiple INTs in 7 games this season.
With the amount of times I expect him to throw against this solid secondary, I think he lets one get away from him.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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