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3 MUST BET NFL Season Props: The King, DJ & Ridley
Written by: Daniel Collins
Last Updated:
Read Time: 9 minutes
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The NFL Regular season is almost here. Rejoice!!
As we gear up for what will surely be yet another drama-filled season on the Gridiron, I have been diving in to the Player Prop market and looking into some season long bets that are definitely worth the investment.
And I found 3.
Before we dive in, here is a breakdown of each division this season and some high quality Future Bets worth taking before the season kicks-off on September 7th.
NFL 2023/24 Divisional Previews & Futures
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- NFC East 2023 Division Winner Odds and Predictions
- NFC South 2023 Division Winner Odds and Predictions
- 2023 NFC West Division Winner Odds and Predictions
- NFC North 2023 Divisional Preview & Picks: Lions Reign Supreme
- AFC East 2023 Divisional Preview & Picks: Jets Soar to the Top
- 2023 AFC North 2023 Division Preview: Will Lamar Show His MVP Form?
- AFC South 2023 NFL Preview, Prediction & Division Winner: Remember the Titans
- AFC West 2023 Preview & Prediction: The Kingdom Rules the West
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Ok without further ado, here are my 3 MUST BET Player Props for the 2023/24 NFL season!
Derrick Henry o9.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-110)
Best line available at Bovada
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First of all, if you know me or follow me on X (if you aren’t, please come join the party), you know that I am a big Tennessee Titans fan and I am all in on the Titans this year in the AFC South.
I believe the two-toned blue have a great chance to challenge the Jaguars for the top spot in the South and get back to the dominate figure in this division we have seen over the past 4 seasons.
That all starts with the King, Derrick Henry.
This is by far my favorite bet leading into the season for a couple of reasons.
First and foremost, it’s Derrick Henry.
Look at what the King has done over the past 5 seasons since becoming the lead back in Tennessee:
- 2018: 215 carries, 1,059 Yards, 12 Touchdowns.
- 2019: 303 carries, 1,540 Yards, 16 Touchdowns.
- 2020: 378 carries, 2,027 Yards, 17 Touchdowns.
- 2021: 219 carries, 937 Yards, 10 Touchdowns. (Season Cut short in week 8 due to Jones fracture in foot)
- 2022: 349 carries, 1,538 Yards, 13 Touchdowns.
As you can see, Henry has 10+ touchdowns in every season since becoming the starting running back for the Titans.
Not only that, but he STILL had 10 touchdowns in the 2021 season only playing 8 full games due to his Jones fracture injury that put him out for the remainder of the season.
But Running Backs fall off at 29, Right?
I understand if the “but he is an old running back and is going to decline” narrative rings too true to you. He is 29 and that is usually the age when most running backs begin to show signs of slowing down.
That very well may be true but that is why I am taking his Touchdowns, NOT his yards.
The Titans were ranked 6th in the NFL last season at scoring touchdowns in the red-zone, breaking the plane in 64.29% of trips.
56 of Henry’s 68 touchdowns over the past 5 season came from the red zone. I don’t see that strategy changing a whole lot this season.
I love the King to reign supreme once again and punch in 10 scores for the 6th season in a row to cash our first futures bet of the season.
I like the 12+ as well if you are feeling frisky. As I noted above, Henry has 12+ touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 seasons, with his one miss being his 2021 campaign where he played 8 games.
Keep being the King, Derrick.
BONUS: Derrick Henry 12+ Touchdowns (+270)
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DJ Moore o800.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Best line available at Bovada
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Next up is a big offseason acquisition for the Chicago Bears in Wide Receiver DJ Moore.
The Bears were able to land the talented wide out in a deal with the Carolina Panthers and bring him into the fold to help take this Bears offense, hopefully, to the next level.
Bears Quarterback Justin Fields showed last season how incredibly dynamic he is with the ball in his hands, racking up 1,563 rushing yards. But it didn’t lead to victories, as the Bears finished 3-14.
Well, with a revamped offensive line and the addition of DJ Moore to this offense, it looks very likely that the Bears could not only get close to .500 this season but possibly challenge the Lions and Vikings at the top of the NFC North.
Can Moore provide More in Chicago this season?
Whether that actually happens remains to be seen but I love the way DJ Moore fits in this offense.
He will for sure have plenty of opportunities to have yet another dynamic season, even if the geography has changed to the Windy City from Charlotte.
Here are Moore’s numbers over the past 4 seasons in Carolina:
- 2019: 87 receptions, 1,175 yards, 4 TDs
- 2020: 66 receptions, 1,193 yards, 4 TDs
- 2021: 93 receptions, 1,157 yards, 4 TDs
- 2022: 63 receptions, 888 yards, 7 TDs
As you can see, Moore has had fantastic success over his last 4 seasons in Carolina, and that was with very subpar quarterback play and playing on, average or even down right awful rosters.
Moore still delivered.
Additionally, he has only missed 4 games in the last 4 seasons so he takes care of his body and has the durability to contribute all season long for the Bears.
Given his ability level and the many ways the Bears are going to incorporate him into this diverse offensive scheme, I love a big year for DJ!
I will also be sprinkling his 1,000 yards as well. He has 1,000+ yards in 3 of his last 4 seasons and while it was in a different offense and scheme, there is no doubt he will push for that 1,000 for his new squad this season.
BONUS: DJ Moore 1,000+ Receiving Yards (+220)
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Calvin Ridley u900.5 Receiving yards (-120)
Best line available at Bovada
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Yes, you read that right.
I am taking Calvin Ridley’s under yards here.
I know everyone and their mother is hopping on the Jaguars bandwagon and have been since the end of last season.
And it makes sens.
But even paired with Trevor Lawrence, this number feels too high for Ridley.
I talked about this and my feeling about the Jaguars on the 3rd Leg Podcast, which you can check out here.
The reasons I am fading Ridley this season is three-fold.
First off, he has only eclipsed 900 yards receiving ONCE in his career and that was the season before he got injured. He was then banned the following season for betting on sports and he hasn't played a single snap of professional football since then.
That brings us to reason number 2. Calvin Ridley’s last snap in a legitimate NFL game was October 21st, 2021.
That is almost 2 years since Ridley has stepped onto a NFL field and played a real game of football.
That’s a long time.
Rust is a factor here and while I know he hasn't forgotten how to play whatsoever, being away from the game for that long does have an effect on you. Mentally, physically, emotionally, etc.
To assume that Ridley just comes in and immediately is the player he was 2 years ago is a bit naive, in my opinion.
And this is an unpopular opinion.
Most Sports Media outlets, Fantasy Football draft experts, Twitter ball knowers etc. are all over a big return for Ridley.
I will happily stand on this opinion alone and let the season play out as it will.
Can Trevor Lawrence really take the Next Step?
Lastly, and this might be the most controversial portion of my reasoning, I think Trevor Lawrence doesn’t take the massive leap this season that everyone is expecting.
Lawrence had a fantastic end to the season last year and led the Jaguars to the AFC Divisional Game, battling it out with the league’s best, Patrick Mahomes. And he looked fantastic doing it.
I think Lawrence is a very good Quarterback and I think he has a good 2023 campaign.
But to say that Lawrence is in the elite category after 10 games of great play to end last season is a bit quick for me.
I want to see it first.
Before the last 7 games of the season last year, here are some Trevor Lawrence stats:
- 27 Games
- 25 Touchdowns
- 23 Interceptions
Pretty average. Now again, those last 7 games were special stuff to end the season and I am not here to argue that. The guy can ball.
But, I want to see it for a full season before we put him in the same category as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and the like.
I know that was a bit of a tangent on Lawrence but the point is, I am not expecting as big of year for Lawrence as many are. And that will, ultimately, effect this entire Jacksonville offense, Ridley included.
Could Calvin Ridley step right back in and be the 1,300+ yard receiver we saw in Atlanta in 2020? Absolutely.
But I am not counting on it.
Give me the under. I am ready to sweat for 17 weeks.
Thanks for stopping by!
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Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. You can follow him on X @SweatpantJesus. Peace and Love
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