Bills vs Patriots Prediction & Picks – NFL Week 13 TNF

Week 13 of the NFL season stands to be a pivotal one for the tight AFC East race, starting with this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.

Buffalo (8-3) and New England (6-5) kick off the new week–and a new month–with their TNF clash, then the New York Jets (7-4) and Miami Dolphins (8-3) have tough road matchups with NFC division leaders on Sunday. The Jets visit the Minnesota Vikings, who sit atop the NFC North, while the Dolphins visit the San Francisco 49ers, who lead the NFC West.

With the division race tight and nine AFC teams at 6-5 or better, all three of those games are important. The winner of Thursday night’s game will put pressure on their rivals and will be able to rest easy on Sunday.

Will it be Buffalo or New England that will have a less stressful Sunday? Read on for our Bills vs Patriots prediction, as well as our betting picks for this matchup.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Buffalo Bills (8-3, 4-2 away, 2nd in the AFC East) vs New England Patriots (6-5, 3-2 home, 4th in the AFC East)
• Venue & Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
• Date: Thursday, December 1, 2022
• Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
• How to Watch Bills vs Patriots: Amazon Prime Video

Bills vs Patriots Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, November 29, 2022, at 3:30 pm ET. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• Buffalo Bills -4.5 (-115)
• New England Patriots +4.5 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 43.5 (-110)
• Under 43.5 (-110

Moneyline

• Buffalo Bills -235
• New England Patriots +194

Can Jones Build Off of Big Day Against Vikings?

New England’s three-game win streak came to an end on Thanksgiving Day as they fell 33-26 at Minnesota, but there was a big bright spot in a tough defeat.

After completing 23 of 27 passes against the rival New York Jets, Mac Jones had the best game of his career in the loss at Minnesota. He completed 28 of 39 passes for a career-high 382 yards, and he had two touchdown passes and no interceptions.

In his first seven games this season, Jones had thrown seven interceptions and only four touchdown passes. So, even though the Pats fell in Minneapolis, Jones’s big day is something to carry into this week.

Can he go blow for blow with Josh Allen and give the Patriots the best possible shot at a win?

The Bills are tied for 2nd in the NFL in in interceptions with 13, so this is something to watch for.

NFL Interception Leaders (By Team – Through Week 12)

• 1. Philadelphia Eagles – 15
• t2nd. Buffalo Bills – 13
• t2nd. Pittsburgh Steelers – 13
• t4th. New England Patriots – 12
• t4th. New York Jets – 12

This current stretch is the first time that Jones has gone three games without an interception, and he will need to remain on the right track there. New England is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry over the last three games, which makes an accurate, efficient game from Jones the bare minimum.

That said, there are concerns with Allen as well that will be key to whether or not the Bills leave with a big division win.

In Buffalo’s 28-25 Turkey Day win in Detroit, Allen completed under 60 percent of his passes for the fourth time this season. He completed 24 of 42 passes (57.1 percent) for 253 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, but he helped his and his team’s cause by running for 78 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

Will his accuracy issues pop up at Gillette Stadium? The Patriots are first in the NFL in opponent completion percentage, second in sacks, tied for fourth in interceptions, and tied for seventh in yards per pass.

Where the Bills have an edge is Allen’s ability to rack up yardage with his legs, which helps offset his less stellar passing performances. In the four games this season in which he has completed less than 60 percent of his passes, he has 36 carries for 283 yards (7.9 yards per carry) and four touchdowns.

It also doesn’t hurt that RB Devin Singletary is producing at the moment. After posting season highs in carries (18) and rushing yards (86) against the Browns, he had 72 yards on 14 carries against the Lions.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction and Picks

Bills vs Patriots Prediction: Bills to win

Bills vs Patriots Picks: Bills first half team total over (Best Value: over 12.5 @ -110 at BetOnline) & Josh Allen rushing yards total over (Best Value: over 42.5 yards @ -114 at BetOnline)

I like Buffalo to win on Thursday night, but there is no ML value, and I don’t particularly love the game spread or total here. So, I am looking away from all of those areas for my Bills vs Patriots picks.

Buffalo has scored 13 or more points in the first half in five straight games and in eight of 11 games this season, and I love the value in backing their first half over.

Also, I really like the value with the over on Allen’s rushing total as well. This number is likely to go up before gametime, so getting it as early as possible is a good idea.

Allen has run for 43 or more yards seven times this season and 18 times in 30 games since the start of last season (16 times in 28 regular season games and in both of his playoff games last season), including twice in three games against the Patriots and 11 times in 15 road games.

Other Bills vs Patriots Content at Betting News

• Bills vs Patriots Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats

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