Bucs vs Saints Prediction & Best Bets: Consider Carr’s Health for NFC South Rivalry Showdown

Last Sunday, the New Orleans Saints lost their quarterback and a 17-0 lead as they fell to the Green Bay Packers. Will he be back in action for Sunday’s renewal of their rivalry with the Tampa Bay Bucs (1:00 pm ET, FOX)? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.

In their Week 3 matchup at Lambeau Field, the Saints (2-1) were seemingly cruising towards a 3-0 start. They were up 17-0 at halftime and picked off Packers QB Jordan Love on the first drive of the second half.

But on the corresponding drive, Saints QB Derek Carr was sacked by Rashan Gary, and the end result was a shoulder injury that ended Carr’s day early.

New Orleans didn’t put any additional points on the board with backup Jameis Winston, and in the fourth quarter, the Packers came all the way back to pull off an 18-17 win.

Still, the Saints find themselves in a three-way tie atop the NFC South through three games, with the Bucs and Atlanta Falcons both also 2-1 after Week 3 losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions, respectively.

With the Falcons facing a tough test in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars, there’s a good chance that the winner of this matchup will end Sunday alone in first place in the NFC South.

Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of 8:55 pm ET Saturday, September 30, 2023.

Spread

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)
• New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 40 (-110)
• Under 40 (-110)

Moneyline

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +155
• New Orleans Saints -180

Recent Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints Head-to-Head Results

• December 5, 2022 (Tampa): 17-16 TB
• September 18, 2022 (New Orleans): 20-10 NO
• December 19, 2021 (Tampa): 9-0 NO
• October 31, 2021 (New Orleans): 36-27 NO
• January 17, 2021 (New Orleans): 30-20 TB
• November 8, 2020 (Tampa): 38-3 NO
• September 13, 2020 (New Orleans): 34-23 NO
• November 17, 2019 (Tampa): 34-17 NO
• October 6, 2019 (New Orleans): 31-24 NO
• December 9, 2018 (Tampa): 28-14 NO

Are the Saints the Better Bet Than the Bucs Even If Winston Starts?

The big question surrounding Sunday’s showdown at the Superdome is whether or not Carr will be able to take the field.

The veteran signal caller was diagnosed with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder, and the injury limited him over the course of the week, as he didn’t return to practice until Friday.

Officially, the word is that he is questionable and considered a game-time decision. But at this early juncture of the season, it makes the most sense to sit him if he isn’t fully ready to go.

If he is unable to play, Winston will make his third start against the Bucs, who drafted him first overall in the 2015 NFL Draft. Two years ago, he suffered a season-ending ACL tear against the Bucs, but New Orleans was still able to pull out a 36-27 win.

After making his recovery, Winston opened last season as the Saints’ starter. In Week 2, he threw three picks in a 20-10 home loss to Tampa Bay, and he started only one more game before Andy Dalton replaced him for the remainder of the season.

Last week, Winston was a respectable 10 for 16 for 101 yards after being pressed into duty, but he was unable to lead the Saints to a single point.

Can he be counted on to generate enough offensive success if Carr is held out of action? Ultimately, no matter who starts, a great deal of offensive success is unlikely to be needed against the Bucs.

Defensively, the Saints held their first two opponents, the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers, under 300 total yards. And in their first 11 quarters of the season, New Orleans surrendered just two touchdowns.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield was very sharp in Week 2 against the Bears, going 26 for 34 with 317 yards and a touchdown. But he was pretty mediocre in Week 1 at Minnesota and at home against the Eagles last week, and a defense that has recorded eight sacks and four interceptions to begin the season can get Mayfield to make some costly mistakes.

If they can do that, the Bucs will be in big trouble, as they are not running the ball well as a team.

Rushing Statistics for the Tampa Bay Bucs (2023 NFL Season)

• Minnesota Vikings (Week 1): 33 carries, 73 yards (2.3 yards per carry)
• Chicago Bears (Week 2): 34 carries, 120 yards (3.5 yards per carry)
• Philadelphia Eagles (Week 3): 17 carries, 41 yards (2.4 yards per carry)

Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: Saints to win

Best Bets: Saints -3.5 (-110 at Bovada) & Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions (-120 at Bovada)

Things fell apart for the Saints after Carr went down at Green Bay, but with a week to settle down and prepare for the Bucs and the possibility that Carr could be out, I think that New Orleans will be able to come out on top at home.

The Bucs haven’t won consecutive games in New Orleans since wins in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, and I’m still just not sold on their offense’s ability to put up adequate production against a strong defense.

Where to Bet on Bucs vs Saints

Many of the top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of NFL odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to bet on Super Bowl spread and over/under odds when the big game arrives, you can make weekly NFL picks on games all season long.

Also, you can bet on the major awards like NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year, and more at most reputable sports betting sites.

Along with Bovada, where the Bucs vs Saints odds in this article came from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for NFL betting. Here are several books that we have reviewed and highly recommend:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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