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NFL Comeback Player of the Year 2024 Odds & Picks: QBs Lead the Pack Before Week 1
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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It’s hard to imagine that the 2024 NFL season is exactly one week away, but here we are. Even though the action is nearly here, there’s still plenty of time to cover this season’s futures markets — especially when it comes to the 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year race.
Last year’s award was won but veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, who wasn’t even on the Cleveland Browns’ roster until September. The former Super Bowl-winning QB led the Browns to a 4-1 record while averaging a career-high 323.2 passing yards per game, culminating in the franchise’s first postseason appearance since 2020.
So, who’ll be the 2024 recipient? Let’s dive into the latest NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds, as well as my award prediction.
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Last 10 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Winners
- 2023: Joe Flacco, QB (BAL)
- 2022: Geno Smith, QB (SEA)
- 2021: Joe Burrow, QB (CIN)
- 2020: Alex Smith, QB (WFT)
- 2019: Ryan Tannehill, QB (TEN)
- 2018: Andrew Luck, QB (IND)
- 2017: Keenan Allen, WR (LAC)
- 2016: Jordy Nelson, WR (GB)
- 2015: Eric Berry, S (KC)
- 2014: Rob Gronkowski, TE (NE)
2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds Before Week 1
The following NFL CPOY odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, Aug. 29 at 11:53 a.m. ET.
- Aaron Rodgers, NYJ (+180)
- Joe Burrow, CIN (+250)
- Kirk Cousins, ATL (+500)
- Anthony Richardson, IND (+750)
- Sam Darnold, MIN (+1000)
- Kyler Murray, ARI (+1600)
- Nick Chubb, CLE (+2000)
- Daniel Jones, NYG (+2200)
- J.K. Dobbins, LAC (+3300)
- Russell Wilson, PIT (+4000)
- Deshaun Watson, CLE (+4000)
- Tank Dell, HOU (+5000)
- Justin Fields, PIT (+6600)
- Joey Bosa, LAC (+10000)
- Zach Wilson, DEN (+15000)
- Uchenna Nwosu, SEA (+15000)
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New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is set to open the 2024 NFL season as BetOnline’s +180 Comeback Player of the Year favorite. The four-time league MVP saw his 2023 campaign prematurely end when he tore his Achilles just four snaps into his Jets tenure. Having said that, New York has done a great job at assembling a reliable offensive line with talented weapons surrounding Rodgers. As long as he remains healthy, he should be in the mix for this award.
The rest of the top of the odds list is QB-heavy. Joe Burrow (+250) is hoping to bounce back after an injury-plagued season. He already won the CPOY award in 2021, meaning he’d join running back Paul Lowe and QB Chad Pennington as the only other players to receive the honors twice.
Kirk Cousins (+500) and Anthony Richardson (+75o) are also on rebound watch after missing the majority of their 2023 years with season-ending injuries. The Arizona Cardinals are hoping to see Kyler Murray (+1600) play his first full season since 2020 while Sam Darnold (+1000) will try to prove that he’s capable of being the Minnesota Vikings’ QB1 after playing as a backup for the San Francisco 49ers last year.
Having said that, it isn’t surprising to see oddsmakers favoring quarterbacks. After all, 12 of the last 16 award recipients were quarterbacks — including each of the last six.
Will that change this season? Only time will tell.
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year Predictions & Dark Horse Pick
While there are a handful of solid candidates in the race, I like QB Kirk Cousins (+500) for my NFL Comeback Player of the Year pick.
A lot of emphasis is being put on Rodgers, but people also forget that Cousins tore his Achilles last season as well. Although he was never an MVP candidate at any point in his career, the former Michigan State gunslinger was playing like one of the league’s better QBs in 2023, averaging 291.4 passing yards with 18 touchdowns to five interceptions through the first eight games.
While Cousins no longer has superstar wideout Justin Jefferson to target, it isn’t as if he’s surrounded by bums in Atlanta. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Darnell Mooney are all tremendous weapons that Cousins could help take to the next level and vice versa. If the 36-year-old QB remains healthy and those around him play up to their potential, the ex-Spartan should be in the mix until the very end.
I’m not too keen on most of this year’s dark horses, however, I’d go with Justin Fields (+6600) if I were forced to sprinkle money on one of them.
Fields, 25, is slated to open the season as Russell Wilson’s backup for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that could all change quickly. Even though Wilson has accomplished much more than his younger counterpart, the nine-time Pro Bowl QB’s play has been declining in recent years. If Wilson struggles early on, Fields could find himself as the Steel City’s QB1 in no time.
Even though Fields has his flaws (and there are many), we can’t forget that he was seen as one of the NFL’s best players not too long ago. The former Ohio State product finished ninth in the 2022 MVP race after throwing for 2,242 passing yards, and 17 touchdowns while turning 160 carries into 1,143 rushing yards and eight more scores.
Fields is still young enough to return to that level, so we’ll see if head coach Mike Tomlin can get him back there. Joe Flacco only needed five games to take home CPOY honors last year, meaning Fields can certainly vault himself into the race if he can capitalize on any potential late-season opportunities.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Prediction: Kirk Cousins, ATL (+500)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Dark Horse: Justin Fields, PIT (+6600)
Get 50% up to $1,000 on your 2024 NFL futures picks today at BetOnline
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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