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Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds, Spread & Picks | NFL Week 12: Thanksgiving Thursday Edition
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
Washington Commanders Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+16.5
-105
47
-115o
+700
Dallas Cowboys Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-10.5
-115
49
-115u
-750
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Thanksgiving Week is here, meaning the NFL has three games lined up for Thursday, Nov. 23. At the center of the schedule is a classic holiday rivalry as the Washington Commanders face the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium for a 4:30 p.m. ET clash.
The Commanders enter Week 12 following back-to-back losses, most recently falling 31-19 to the New York Giants over the weekend. On the flip side, the Cowboys put on another strong showing last week, walking out of Bank of America Stadium with a 33-10 win over the Carolina Panthers.
Only one of these teams still has a realistic shot at winning the division. BetOnline lists Dallas at +450 odds (No. 2) to win the NFC East while Washington sits much further back at +50000 (No. 3).
This betting preview is stuffed with everything you need to know for this Thanksgiving showdown. Keep reading for my Commanders vs Cowboys prediction and the latest NFL odds and best bets to make on Thursday.
Commanders vs Cowboys Thanksgiving Preview — NFL Week 12
Commanders vs Cowboys Matchup Information
- Matchup: Washington Commanders (4-7, 3-3 Away) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-3, 4-0 Home)
- Venue & Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023
- Game Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Commanders vs. Cowboys Week 12 TV Channel: CBS
Commanders vs Cowboys Odds & Spread
NFL game odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Tuesday, Nov. 21 at 7:38 a.m. ET. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
Commanders vs Cowboys Spread
- Washington Commanders +11 (-111)
- Dallas Cowboys -11 (-109)
Commanders vs Cowboys Over/Under
- Over 48.5 Points (-110)
- Under 48.5 Points (-110)
Commanders vs Cowboys Moneyline
- Washington Commanders +430
- Dallas Cowboys -550
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Commanders vs Cowboys Betting Trends
- Washington is 4-10 straight up in its last 14 games vs. Dallas.
- Dallas is 12-3 straight up in its last 15 NFC East matchups.
- Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
- Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.
- The total has hit the Over in five of Washington’s last eight games.
- The total has hit the Over in seven of Dallas’ last eight home games vs. Washington.
Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction & Best Bet: NFL Week 12
A matchup between these NFC East rivals has become somewhat of a Thanksgiving tradition. The Commanders and Cowboys have met for 10 Turkey Day matchups over the years, resulting in Dallas emerging victorious eight times.
While the Commanders did win the last time these rivals met on Thanksgiving (41-16, 2020), I have a hard time imagining history repeating itself.
For starts, Washington has been awful more often than not as of late. The Commanders have won just twice in their last nine outings and the defense has played a huge role in those struggles, surrendering 29 or more points in six of those contests — including in three of the last four games.
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On top of that, the only teams that the Commanders beat over that stretch were the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots, who own a combined 6-14 record this season. It’s safe to say Ron Rivera’s squad struggles against above-.500 competition.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been getting solid play on both sides of the ball during their latest run. They’re 4-1 in their last five outings, scoring an average of 33.6 points while only allowing 18.4 PPG — good for a plus-15.2 average scoring margin.
Another thing that the Cowboys have going for them is a perfect 4-0 record at AT&T Stadium. Dallas has been dismantling opponents left and right in the Lone Star State, leading to an NFL-best plus-27.5 average scoring margin at home.
The Commanders boast an even margin on the road, however, they have been outscored by an average of 5.2 points in their last five games.
And while both teams have succeeded at covering the spread lately, it’s worth noting that the Cowboys are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games against the Commanders. In fact, Dallas has outscored Washington by an 11-point average in the last five meetings alone.
That’s why I have no problem backing the Cowboys to win while covering the spread in the process. It’s just hard to have faith in the Commanders when they’re coming off a 12-point loss to the Tommy DeVito-led New York Giants.
Expect the Cowboys to remain perfect at AT&T Stadium once the final whistle blows.
Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction: DAL wins
Commanders vs Cowboys Best Bet: DAL -11 (-109 on BetOnline)
Commanders vs Cowboys Best Player Prop: NFL Week 12
When it comes to the best Commanders vs. Cowboys player prop, I like Sam Howell passing for fewer than 265.5 yards.
Don’t get me wrong: Howell has surpassed expectations this season. He’s even hit the Over on this prop in three of his last four games. Having said that, he’s facing a Cowboys defense that’s allowing the second-fewest passing yards this season.
Dallas hasn’t allowed more than 251 passing yards all season, holding its last two opponents to 77 or less. Considering how the Cowboys also own the seventh-most sacks, I just Howell facing too much pressure to hit the Over on this prop.
Bet: Sam Howell u265.5 Passing Yards (-115 on Bovada)
Commanders vs Cowboys Week 12 FAQ
When is Commanders vs Cowboys?
- The Commanders and Cowboys will collide on Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023.
Where is Commanders vs Cowboys?
- The Commanders and Cowboys will play each other at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.
What time does Commanders vs Cowboys start?
- Kickoff for the upcoming WSH vs. DAL matchup is slated for 4:30 p.m. ET.
How can I watch Commanders vs Cowboys?
- Commanders and Cowboys fans can tune in to CBS for Thursday’s matchup.
How to Bet on Commanders vs Cowboys
- Most reputable sportsbooks — including BetDSI — offer Commanders vs. Cowboys betting markets and the rest of the NFL Week 12 slate.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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