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Dolphins vs Jets Prediction, Odds, Spread & Picks | NFL Week 12: Black Friday Edition
Written by: Devon Platana
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Read Time: 6 minutes
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While a good chunk of NFL fans are excited about the Thanksgiving Thursday schedule, there’s also action going down the next day. The Miami Dolphins are slated to go one-on-one with the New York Jets in a Black Friday showdown at 3 p.m. ET.
The Dolphins have alternated between wins and losses over their last five games, but this time they’re coming off a 20-13 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Jets don’t have any momentum on their side, though, heading into this tilt on a three-game skid.
These AFC East rivals’ odds of winning the division couldn’t be further apart. Miami is Bovada’s clear-cut favorite, coming in at -400 odds while New York sits further back in third (+3500).
Looking to get in on the Black Friday action? Then continue reading this betting preview to see my Dolphins vs Jets prediction and best bets, as well as everything else you need to know.
Dolphins vs Jets Black Friday Preview — NFL Week 12
Dolphins vs Jets Matchup Information
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins (7-3, 2-3 Away) vs. New York Jets (4-6, 2-3 Home)
- Venue & Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
- Date: Friday, Nov. 24, 2023
- Game Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Dolphins vs. Jets Week 12 TV Channel: Prime Video
Dolphins vs Jets Odds & Spread
NFL game odds courtesy of Bovada as of Wednesday, Nov. 22 at 10:23 p.m. ET. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
Dolphins vs Jets Spread
- Miami Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
- New York Jets +9.5 (-110)
Dolphins vs Jets Over/Under
- Over 40.5 Points (-110)
- Under 40.5 Points (-110)
Dolphins vs Jets Moneyline
- Miami Dolphins (-450)
- New York Jets (+335)
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Dolphins vs Jets Betting Trends
- Miami is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 games played in November.
- The Jets are 3-17 straight up in their last 20 AFC East matchups.
- Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. the Jets.
- The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in November.
- The total has hit the Under in four of Miami’s last six games.
- The total has hit the Under in five of the Jets’ last seven games vs. Miami.
Dolphins vs Jets Prediction & Best Bet: NFL Week 12
While some rivalries are known for going back and forth, this isn’t one of them.
Going back to the start of the 2016 NFL season, the Dolphins are 11-3 across 14 matchups against the Jets. Miami scored at least three touchdowns in eight of those contests while boasting a plus-5.2 average scoring margin along the way.
Even having the home-field advantage shouldn’t provide the Jets with much confidence after dropping 10 of their last 15 home games against the Dolphins. And while New York did emerge victorious when most recently met at MetLife Stadium last year, it hasn’t earned back-to-back home games over Miami since 2006/2007.
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Another thing working against the Jets is their non-existent offense. Everyone knew the offense would take a hit once Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles, but scoring fewer than 13 points in each of their last four games — while averaging 9.3 PPG — is downright embarrassing.
It’s possible the offense could get even worse in Week 12 as the Jets are starting journeyman QB Tim Boyle over Zach Wilson. Boyle has made three starts across 18 career appearances, throwing for 607 passing yards with three TDs to nine INTs and a 50.9 passer rating.
It’s also worth noting that the Detroit Lions only averaged 18.3 points in the three games Boyle started for them back in 2021.
The Dolphins might not have the best defense (23.8 PPG, T-23rd), but it has been playing better lately. Mike McDaniel’s squad has just 17.0 PPG over the last three outings while forcing five turnovers, so I have faith that they can handle the Jets.
Some people might be doubting the Dolphins due to a three-game skid on the road, but. I don’t. Those losses came against the Eagles, Bills, and Chiefs, who are all Super Bowl contenders in one form or another. There’s no shame in losing to them.
With that being said, back the Dolphins to win at MetLife Stadium. I just don’t see how they can lose to Boyle, of all quarterbacks.
At the same time, I feel more comfortable with the Under on the 40.5-point total than betting on the spread. The Under is both 4-2 in Miami’s last six games as well as 6-1 in New York’s seven most recent home outings. With the Under also hitting in five of the last seven Dolphins-Jets tilts, seeing just 38.5 PPG averaged, don’t expect many points.
Dolphins vs Jets Prediction: MIA wins
Dolphins vs Jets Best Bet: u40.5 Total Points (-110 on Bovada)
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Dolphins vs Jets Best Player Prop: NFL Week 12
Tyreek Hill has been the NFL’s best wide receiver this season, but that isn’t stopping me from taking him to hit under 79.5 receiving yards.
For starters, Hill only averaged 75.8 receiving yards across five previous meetings with the Jets, finishing with 47 or fewer twice last season. On top of that, no team allows fewer yards per game to wideouts than New York (106.6).
That’s without even mentioning how Hill is significantly less productive away from home this year. The 29-year-old playmaker is averaging 62.0 receiving yards in his last away appearances, finishing with the Under on this prop thrice.
Best Dolphins vs Jets Prop Bet: Tyreek Hill u79.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on BetOnline)
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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