Dolphins vs Patriots Week 17 Betting: Brace for Low-Scoring Showdown in Foxboro

There are only two weeks remaining in the 2022 NFL regular season as Week 17 has arrived. The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots will meet in a rivalry game Sunday as both sides attempt to get their hands on an AFC Wild Card spot. Neither rival can afford to lose a game this late into the campaign, making this Dolphins vs Patriots showdown some must-see television.

#Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is once again in the NFL’s concussion protocol. His status for this week’s game against the #Patriots is now in doubt. pic.twitter.com/Y69BnujxZN

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 26, 2022

The Dolphins’ losing ways continued last week as a 26-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers hand the former their fourth consecutive loss. What’s even worse is that Miami head coach Josh McDaniel revealed on Monday that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has entered concussion protocol, leaving his Week 17 status up in the air.

Meanwhile, the Patriots were busy picking up another loss last week, falling 22-18 to the Cincinnati Bengals. New England was held off the scoresheet until 3:51 in the third quarter, so it’s safe to say that a more complete effort is needed to get the win this time around.

Betting News has gathered the latest Dolphins vs Patriots odds from BetOnline Sportsbook to help shed some light on the situation, along with a prediction and best bets for the NFL Week 17 game.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Week 17 Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Dolphins (8-7, 3-5 Away) vs. New England Patriots (7-8, 3-4 Home)
• Venue & Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxboro, Massachusetts)
• Date: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023
• Game Time: 1 p.m. Eastern Time
• Dolphins vs Patriots Info: CBS

Dolphins vs Patriots Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, Dec. 27 at 9:05 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Miami Dolphins +1.5 (-105)
• New England Patriots -1.5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 42.5 Points (-110)
• Under 42.5 Points (-110)

Moneyline

• Miami Dolphins +118
• New England Patriots -138

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Betting Trends

• Miami is 2-11 straight up in its last 13 road games against New England.
• New England is 9-3 straight up in its last 12 games played in January.
• Miami is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games against the AFC East.
• New England is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against the AFC East.
• The total has hit the over in five of Miami’s last six road games.
• The total has hit the under in four of New England’s last five games against Maimi.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction and Picks

Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction: Patriots 23, Dolphins 16

Dolphins vs Patriots Picks: Patriots -1.5 (Best Value: -115 at BetOnline) & Under 42.5 Points (Best Value: -110 at BetOnline)

The last time that the Dolphins and Patriots collided was way back in Week 1 of the campaign. Miami displayed complete and total dominance, eventually walking out with the 20-7 victory on home soil.

Keeping that in mind, the Dolphins had Tagovailoa under center in the victory. That might not be the case this week since it isn’t easy to clear the NFL’s concussion protocol. Considering how he was already concussed twice this season, it doesn’t seem like the third-year QB has the best odds of playing on Sunday.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they aren’t nearly as good when Tagovailoa is sidelined. In the two games that he missed this year, Miami was outscored a combined 64-33 in those matchups. It didn’t matter whether it was Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson filling in: neither man could produce any Tagovailoa-like results.

Now, likely without their starting QB, the Dolphins must try to win at Gillette Stadium. The bad news for them is that they’ve lost 11 of their last 13 trips to Foxboro dating back to 2009. While Miami has beaten New England twice on the road since 2019, it’s just hard to trust the former without Tagovailoa.

The Patriots haven’t given fans too many reasons to cheer, but they at least own a plus-3.7 scoring margin in their last six home games. For comparison, the Dolphins are an abysmal minus-6.8 in their last six road games. Although Miami did end up winning two of those contests, it’s worth noting that both victories only came by four and three points.

It’s also hard to trust the Dolphins after they’ve allowed an average of 28.5 points during their four-game skid. Meanwhile, the Patriots have kept opponents to a 13.0 PPG clip in their last four home games, even holding the opposition to just three points on two occasions.

At the end of the day, I have no issues siding with the Patriots winning this weekend. They aren’t perfect, but their roster is healthier and they have the advantage of Tagovailoa likely sitting this one out. As a result, covering the 1.5-point spread shouldn’t be an issue for New England.

I’m also backing the spread going under 42.5 points. Neither offense has been consistent enough lately and it’ll be even harder to surpass that total if the Dolphins are forced to use a backup QB. Considering how four of the last five Dolphins vs Patriots matchups have also fallen under 42.5 points, I expect another low-scoring affair in the cards.

Other Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Resources

• Dolphins vs Patriots Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats

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