Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/23)

 Football fans, rejoice! We are blessed with a double header of Monday Night Football as the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Buffalo Bills up in Orchard Park, and the Cincinnati Bengals host the Washington Commanders. Now, here we will focus on the first matchup, but be sure to check out Colby’s take as a pair of LSU Quarterbacks face off in the pros.

Now, let’s take a look at his East Coast matchup. The Jaguars come into this game 0-2 on the season and desperate need a win. After losing to Miami on the road and then getting beat by the Browns at home, Trevor Lawrence has not earned his 275 million contract extension. He will have a tough task going into Buffalo on Primetime, facing a Bills team that is 2-0 and shows no signs of slowing down.

Despite losing Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and several key defenders, Josh Allen has not missed a beat, and is still playing MVP caliber football and has his team undefeated through two weeks of play. The Bills actually lost this game to Jacksonville last season, but it was over in London, so a bit of an outlier. Regardless, Lawrence has beaten Allen and the Bills before, but can he do so on the road tonight?

Let’s dive into our best bets in this matchup and find out!

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills: Lawrence vs Allen in Primetime

Matchup Information – Jaguars vs Bills

• Venue & Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
• Date: Monday, September 23rd, 2024
• Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Jaguars +5.5 (-115)
• Bills -5.5 (-105)

Money Line

• Jaguars +205
• Bills -245

Total

• Over 45.5 (-110)
• Under 45.5 (-110)

Check out our Commanders vs Bengals Preview!

Will Jaguars Finally Win a Game This Season?

This guy, Trevor Lawrence, signed a huge deal this offseason. The Jaguars extended Lawrence for 5 more years, totaling 275 million dollars, with 200 guaranteed, and a 37.5 million dollar signing bonus. Talk about a major payday.

And what seems to happen to all of these NFL stars as soon as they get that big pay day? They suck. They absolutely forget how to play football.

Can Jaguars Turn Season Around?

Now, the Jaguars have had 2 weeks to shake off the rust, and truth be told, they do not look good. After building a 14 point lead, Jacksonville melted down in the 2nd half. Not only were they held scoreless, but they let Miami score 13 unanswered to win the game at home. The next week, the Jaguars were feeling good in their home opener, but forgot to show up in the first half. Jacksonville found themselves down 10-0 early, and that lead jumped to 16-3 early in the 3rd quarter, eventually losing 18-13 after a Browns safety with less than 2 minutes to play.

As for the Bills, people expected them to fall off, but they certainly haven’t. Josh Allen put up 34 points in Week 1 beating Arizona in a shootout, and turned around the beat the Dolphins on the road, 31-10. Despite expectations being a bit lower for the Bills, they have proven to pick up right where they left off. As for tonight, I feel like the public will be quick to bet the Bills. Listed as favorite of less than a TD at home, coming off two big wins against a winless team, the Bills and Bengals will probably be America’s Little Sweetheart tonight. As for my coins, I do lean with the Jaguars to cover the number, but I do think the total goes over. However, I will put my money on a player prop tonight, where we are 5-1 this NFL season.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Best Bets

Jaguars vs Bills Prediction: Bills Win, Jaguars Cover, Over 45.5

Best Bet: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-108) BetOnline

Is the Jaguars secondary any good? Not really. But the way to attack the defense is through the air, which leads me to believe Josh Allen really lets it fly tonight. With that being said, this guy is an interception machine, but has yet to throw one this season. Allen has thrown 42 passes this year, completed over 73% of them, and also had 40 yards on the ground. However, we know how careless he can be with the football. Let me give you some numbers to illustrate is increased interception rate through his career.

Josh Allen Interceptions

• 2023: INT in 14/19 games (73.7%), 18 total
• 2022: INT in 11/18 games (61.1%), 14 total
• 2021: INT in 10/18 games (55.6%), 15 total
• 2020: INT in 9/19 games (47.4%), 10 total
• 2019: INT in 6/17 games (35.3%), 9 total
• 2018: INT in 7/12 games (58.3%), 12 total

Allen has also thrown a pick in 2 straight against the Jaguars, in 2/3 total games against Jacksonville in his career, with 3 total picks in those contests. I will be the first to admit, this is a fade of Josh Allen rather than backing the Jaguars secondary.

Allen has been nearly perfect through 2 games of the season, so he is certainly due for some regression. As his INT rate suggests, he is becoming increasingly reckless with the football, turning him into a turnover machine. While I do think the Bills win tonight, I trust the Jaguars to play their best game of the season and keep this one close. Allen should be airing it out, and I’m sure he throws a pass that he wishes he could have back.

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