Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers: NFL Predictions & Best Bets (9/29)

The NFL is blessing us with an AFC West rivalry matchup this week out in LA, as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Super Bowl defending Kansas City Chiefs. The Champs are 3-0 to start the season, but are very narrow margins away from being 0-3 as well. They certainly haven’t played their best, but Patrick Mahomes has them undefeated through 3 weeks for the first time since 2020. While Kansas City is dealing with the injury of starting RB Isiah Pacheco, who is out indefinitely, they are in better shape than their opponent.

Despite being 2-1 on the season, the Chargers are extremely beat up. They have 7 starters and a few back ups all listed on the injury report, with rookie OL Joe Alt likely to miss this week. QB Justin Herbert is also dealing with an ankle injury, so if he is able to play, he certainly won’t be 100%. He was still limited in practice on Thursday, and without him the Chargers might as well not show up.

On the other side of the ball, Joey Bosa did no practice on Wednesday, and SS Derwin James will be suspended for this contest. James is known for shutting down TE Travis Kelce, so could this finally be his breakout game without his nemesis starting him down every play? Let’s dive into this matchup and find out best bets.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers: AFC West Divisional Contest

Matchup Information – Chiefs vs Chargers

• Venue & Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
• Date: Sunday, September 29th, 2024
• Kick Off: 4:25pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Chiefs -7 (-117)
• Chargers +7 (-103)

Money Line

• Chiefs -365
• Chargers +295

Total

• Over 39.5 (-110)
• Under 39.5 (-110)

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Injured Chargers Host Undefeated Champs

The Chargers are more than beat up as a team. For starters, Travis Kelce’s kryptonite, starting SS Derwin James is suspended, which sincerely hurts the entire Chargers defense that has been less than impressive. Here are some other injuries for Los Angeles.

• OL Joe Alt: Expected to Miss Week 4
• OL Rashawn Slater: Questionable
• LB Joey Bosa: Didn’t practice Wednesday
• QB Justin Herbert: Limited practice Thursday
• WR Josh Palmer: Limited practice Wednesday
• TE: Hayden Hurst: Limited practice Wednesday
• CB Kristian Fulton: Questionable
• CB Ja’Sir Taylor: Questionable

There are way too many starters on this list for any Charger fan to have confidence going into Sunday’s game. Facing the Chiefs is tough enough, but doing so without your starting SS, and potentially your starting QB and best pass rusher severally hinders any chances of winning. While LA will still put up a fight, I have little confidence in this team going forward, as they looked horrendous against the Steelers defense.

While even I’ll admit the Chiefs defense is not as good as Pittsburgh’s, they are still a tough matchup, especially with a beat up offense. If Herbert doesn’t play, Taylor Heinicke will likely get the nod, relying heavily on the run game to take some pressure off his arm. As far as this spread goes, the number is too high for my liking. With that being said, I will not back the Chargers either. The Chiefs could easily blow them out of the water, especially considering who may or may not see the field Sunday. However, I could also see the Chargers covering the back door very late in the game, which is why I will be staying off a side and total.

Instead, I’ve got a chalky player prop that I’m sure will be fairly popular.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Best Bets

Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction: Chiefs Win, Chargers Cover, Over 39.5

Best Bet: Travis Kelce Over 4.5 Receptions (-135) BetOnline

Surprise, surprise, we are betting on a Chief and his last name is Kelce. Before you scream at me for being a chalky homer, we are 4-0 this season on picks involving Kansas City. Kelce is bound for a breakout game, and this is the perfect spot.

Look, I already discussed how Derwin James is suspended. That is MASSIVE for the Chiefs and specifically Kelce. James would essentially man up on Kelce every chance he got, and he admittedly did a good job of shutting him down and taking him out of the game. With him gone, Kelce is bound to step up.

It’s no secret Travis Kelce is not having the year we expected. Through 3 games, he has just 8 catches for 69 yards and no TDs. He only has 1 20+ yard reception as well, but he is still Mahomes 2nd favorite target. Kelce is 2nd on the Chiefs in receptions and targets, and lots of attention will certainly be on Rashee Rice. The wideout has 24 catches on 29 targets for nearly 300 yards this year, and I think his play will open stuff up for Kelce, just as his presence has had that impact for Rice. Add in the major question mark and RB for Kansas City, and it should set up Travis for more sit down receptions a few yards up the field for an easy first down on 3rd and short.

I don’t mind paying this juice for just 5 receptions. He caught 4/5 targets last week and like I said, without James, he’s got to have a big game soon. Worth noting, Kelce has 5+ receptions in 6 straight games against the Chargers, and 8/10 overall against LAC with Mahomes as his QB, including 10+ targets in his L2.

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