Lions vs Packers Week 4 Thursday Night Football Prediction & Best Bets: Go Green (Bay) for TNF

Going into the NFL season, NFC North predictions forecast the division as one of the most wide-open in the league, with little space between the favored Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Chicago Bears.

Three weeks into the season, some surprising separation has already formed.

The Vikings, seemingly allergic to winning a close game, are 0-3.

So are the Bears, as Justin Fields has not performed at the level many expected he would in year three.

As projected, the Lions, aided by a Week 1 road win over the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, are at the top of the division at this early juncture.

But the Packers are right there with them, with sole possession of first place on the line in their Thursday Night Football matchup in Green Bay (8:15 pm ET, Amazon Prime Video).

Lambeau Field is sure to be rocking for this showdown, but will the Cheeseheads go home happy? Early odds have the Lions favored by a slight margin, which is an uncommon sight for this rivalry.

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Odds

Early Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of 9:25 am ET Tuesday, September 26, 2023.

Spread

• Detroit Lions -1.5 (-110)
• Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 45 (-110)
• Under 45 (-110)

Moneyline

• Detroit Lions -125
• Green Bay Packers +105

Gameday Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of 8:20 am ET Thursday, September 28, 2023.

Spread

• Detroit Lions -2 (-105)
• Green Bay Packers +2 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 45.5 (-110)
• Under 45.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Detroit Lions -130
• Green Bay Packers +110

Should We Expect a Thursday Night Thriller in Green Bay?

After splitting a pair of close games in the first two weeks of the season, the Lions had more of a leisurely stroll in Week 3 as they dispatched the Atlanta Falcons 20-6 at Ford Field.

Jared Goff (22 of 33, 243 yards, TD, INT) was efficient, rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (17 carries, 80 yards) had a productive day with David Montgomery (thigh) sidelined, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (nine catches, 102 yards) continued his hot start to the season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Game-by-Game Stats for 2023

• at Kansas City: six catches (nine targets), 71 yards, TD
• vs Seattle: six catches (seven targets), 102 yards
• vs Atlanta: nine catches (12 targets), 102 yards

But it was Detroit’s defense that really stole the show. They limited the Falcons to just 44 rushing yards and 183 total yards, and they racked up seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss.

To underscore how impressive the Lions were defensively, in their 25-24 win over the Packers in Week 2, the Falcons put up 211 rushing yards and 446 total yards, and Ridder was sacked only once.

Can they terrorize another young quarterback this week?

In Week 2 at Atlanta, the Packers led 24-12 entering the fourth quarter. But the Falcons scored the game’s final 13 points, and Jordan Love was 0 for 6 in three fourth-quarter drives after completing 14 of his 19 passes.

That carried over into Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints, as Love and the Packers produced zero points in the first three quarters and fell behind 17-0.

But after coming up empty on a 12-play, 82-yard, six-plus minute drive that ended at the start of the fourth quarter, the Packers’ final three drives produced a field goal, two touchdowns, and 18 points, leading to a one-point win over the stunned Saints.

For a young quarterback replacing one of the game’s all-time greats, that is the kind of performance and result that can build a lot of confidence going forward.

This week, Love has the responsibility of upholding the rather robust record that his predecessors, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, had against the Lions.

Recent Lions vs Packers Head-to-Head Results

At Detroit

• November 6, 2022: 15-9 Detroit
• January 9, 2022: 37-30 Detroit
• December 13, 2020: 31-24 Green Bay
• December 29, 2019: 23-20 Green Bay
• October 7, 2018: 31-23 Detroit

At Green Bay

• January 8, 2023: 20-16 Detroit
• September 20, 2021: 35-17 Green Bay
• September 20, 2020: 42-21 Green Bay
• October 14, 2019: 23-22 Green Bay
• December 30, 2018: 31-0 Detroit

Yes, the last ten Lions vs Packers games have been split evenly, and Detroit swept the season series for the third time in six seasons last year.

But since 1992, when Favre took over as the starter in Green Bay, the Packers are 44-20 against the Lions, including a 28-4 mark in games at Lambeau Field.

Love’s chances of adding to that success would be enhanced by the potential return of running back Aaron Jones. Jones has been out since suffering a hamstring injury in the season opener against the Bears, but there is optimism that he may be back for Thursday’s game.

Jones had nine carries for 41 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 86 yards and a touchdown against Chicago, so his return would certainly be welcome, especially after the Packers mustered only 88 yards on 26 carries (3.4 yards per carry) against the Falcons and Saints.

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: Packers to win

Best Bets: Packers +1.5 & Packers ML

I’m hesitant to do any over/under betting in this one until Jones’s status is certain, but if he is able to go, I think he will provide a major spark for the Packers.

That said, I expect them to get the victory whether or not their veteran back is able to take the field. The comeback win over the Saints was huge for Love, and I think that confidence will carry over into the matchup with the Lions.

Where to Bet on Lions vs Packers

Many of the top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of NFL odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to bet on Super Bowl spread and over/under odds when the big game arrives, you can make weekly NFL picks on games all season long.

Also, you can bet on the major awards like NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year, and more at most reputable sports betting sites.

Along with Bovada, where the Lions vs Packers odds in this article came from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for NFL betting. Here are several books that we have reviewed and highly recommend:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

Other NFL Week 4 Content on Betting News

• NFL Week 4 Predictions and Spread & Over/Under Odds and Picks