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Monday Night Football, Bills vs Jets, Best Bets: Allen vs Aaron on ESPN
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Monday Night Football is finally here! The first installment on ESPN takes place tonight a the Buffalo Bills take on the New York Jets.
There is a ton of hype surrounding this Jets team as they brought in QB Aaron Rodgers to give this program some veteran leadership on offense.
The Buffalo Bills are looking to get back to the playoffs and finally get over the hump and into Josh Allen’s first Super Bowl. This will be a tough task as the AFC East should be a gauntlet this year.
Let’s break this one down!
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Bills vs Jets Game Information
The Jets actually beat the Bills last November, but prior to that they had not won since 2019. The Bills travel into MetLife Stadium looking rebound after last season’s loss in New York.
Is he Jets hype real? Can Aaron Rodgers turn this program around?
Or will Josh Allen and the Bills show New York who Big Brother really is?
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: EMetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
- Date: Monday, September 11th, 2023
- Kick Off: 7:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC/ESPN
Betting Odds
Spread
- Bills -2 (-110)
- Jets +2 (-110)
Moneyline
- Bills -130
- Jets +110
Total
- Over 45 (-115)
- Under 45 (-105)
Bills vs Jets Best Bets
My gut tells me the Bills win this game, but what if the Jets hype is real?
Aaron Rodgers still has gas left in the tank, they surrounded him with Garret Wilson, Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, and former Packer Allen Lazard. He has some playmakers, but can they be effective?
The Jets were 29th last year scoring just 17.4 PPG. However, they were 2nd in scoring defense, allowing just 18.6 PPG.
Clearly they are looking to bolster their offensive numbers, but this Bills defense is still a force to be reckoned with. They allowed just 19.1 PPG last year, ranking 4th in the NFL.
Both secondaries were in the top half of the league in passing yards allowed per game, so I think we see the defenses shine tonight.
Don’t be surprised when we have another boring, low scoring, defensive PrimeTime game.
The Pick: Bills/Jets Under 45 (-105) Bovada
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Player Props
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (-135) Bovada
Wilson is the clear WR1 on the Jets’ roster, so I expect him to build some confidence with Rodgers early and often in this first game.
Just six receptions is what we need from him, and I’m willing to pay the -135 juice.
Last year, Wilson cleared this line in 7/17 games, and had four games with at least 8 catches.
At home, he cleared in 3/8 games, but also had a game with 5 catches and three games with 4 catches. He’s been right there nearly every time.
Wilson also cleared this line in both games against the Bills last year, including 8 in the game at MetLife.
He ended last season catching 9 passed in Miami, and with a new rapport to build with Rodgers, I expect no less than 8 targets tonight.
I think Wilson can haul in six of those for us, making paying the juiceman worth it on this pick.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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