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NFL Week 4 Must Bet Props: More Games, More Props
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
Week 4 started with a bang, we saw the Lions and Packers combine for 54 points and 631 total yards of offense. Hopefully thats a sign of whats to come on Sunday.
Sunday’s games start early, with kick off across the pond. Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons made the trip to London, and will face off at 9:30 AM EST tomorrow at Wembley Stadium.
Week 4 is also the last time until Week 15 where all 32 teams will be in action. More teams, means more games, which means more props, and you get the idea.
Let’s make the most of this big slate and jump right into it.
Kyle Pitts o32.5 Rec Yards (-122) via Bovada
Pitts and Ridder have yet to really establish any chemistry. With only 3 games played together, all coming this year, it’s going to be a bit of a feeling out process.
Through 3 weeks, Pitts is tied for the team lead in targets with 17; only 10 of those being catchable targets.
He’s seeing an average depth of target of 11.82 yards, and his targets are trending in the right direction. He saw just 3 targets in Week 1, then 5, then 9 in Week 3.
In terms of opponents, this Falcons team has gone up some pretty stingy pass defenses. Both the Packers + Panthers are allowing < 199 pass yards/game.
The Jaguars, on the flip side, are allowing 264 pass yards/game (26th). They also rank 27th in TE targets allowed.
Pitts has not quite met the expectations he set for himself in his rookie year, but to write him off as a bust this soon would be crazy. He’s still the same freak athlete, with size, great hands, and route running.
Lastly, the last time Pitts played across the pond; he recorded 9 catches for 119 rec yards and a touchdown.
Kyle Pitts o32.5 Rec Yards (-122) via Bovada
DJ Moore o45.5 Rec Yards (-118) via Bovada
Could be crazy to take a Bears’ receiving prop, but here we are. Moore has only eclipsed this line once since coming to Chicago, and that came in Week 2; 6 Rec on 7 Tgts for 106 yards.
Moore’s coming off a 6 Tgt, 3 Rec game for just 41 yards and a touchdown, against the Chiefs. The Bears offense only held the ball for 23 minutes of that game, with Fields only throwing the ball 22 times.
With the Bears’ commitment to throwing the ball, that should provide plenty of opportunity for DJ.
The Bears’ enter this game as a 3 point dog at home, to a team that’s allowed 205 points over the last two weeks. The total sits at 46.5, tied for second highest on the day.
Vegas is predicting points, even with how bad this Bears’ offense has been. As bad as they’ve been offensively, the Broncos defense has been just as bad defensively.
Moore leads the Bears’ in targets, receptions, and rec yards; but the play of Justin Fields’ has brought on some question marks.
While Fields’ isn’t free of blame, the issue has also been with his offensive line. He’s been sacked 13 times this year, second most among QBs this season.
This Broncos defense has recorded just 4 sacks all season, and all 4 came against the Commanders in Week 2; the same offensive line thats given up 16 sacks on the year.
The lack of Broncos’ pass rush should provide Fields with a little more time to go through progressions and pick apart this terrible Broncos secondary.
If Fields can manage to stay upright, DJ Moore could have a day at Soldier Field.
DJ Moore o45.5 Rec Yards (-118) via Bovada
I’ll be updating this piece as injury news is released, stay tuned.
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