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By The Numbers: Using Analytics to Bet On Tonight’s NHL Slate (3/12)
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
nhl
If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! There are a few great matchups tonight between contenders, and another edition of the “Slackin for Macklin” Bowl between Anaheim and Chicago. There are 10 games in the NHL tonight starting at 7 PM ET and quite a few spots with value to make some money.
A 10-game Tuesday will feature plenty of teams looking to improve their positions in the standings including the @DetroitRedWings and @GoldenKnights, who will both contest games on @Sportsnet.#NHLStats: https://t.co/2tq6o2PL9O pic.twitter.com/OK3KTqlwMi
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 12, 2024
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Top Money Line Props
Carolina ML (-160)
Carolina gets the New York Rangers on the second night of a back to back. The Rangers beat New Jersey on Monday night in Manhattan, then travelled to Raleigh for tonight’s matchup. The Rangers are expected to start Igor Shesterkin tonight, who’s been the backbone of the Rangers this season. The Rangers have been one of the NHL’s best teams in back-to-back nights this season, going 9-1. However, the Hurricanes are getting a big boost with the debut of Jake Guentzel on the second line. The Hurriances out duelled the Rangers to acquire Guentzel from the Penguins, a sniper who will be relied upon to provide key scoring depth for the Hurricanes.
Both teams are battling for the division title, with the Hurricanes having a distinct advantage in tonight’s matchup. The Rangers have won the last three meetings in Carolina and four of the last six games between the two teams. In the last 10 games, both teams have scored 3+ goals in 7, while the Rangers have allowed 2 or less in 6. Neither team trends towards the over, failing to score 7 goals in more than 70% of their last 10 games. Both teams have killed penalties with success of late, don’t expect many power play goals tonight.
Despite the Rangers excellent record in back-to-backs, teams who travel to play against a rested team, win 39% of their games this season. There is a distinct disadvantage to travelling and playing on consecutive nights. The Hurricanes have been much better defensively of late and should benefit from adding Guentzel to the lineup. -160 has is a somewhat juicy line, but back the Canes in a crucial matchup with the rest advantage.
Minnesota ML (-190)
The Minnesota Wild are coming off the most polarizing win of the season in which John Hynes pulled the goalie in overtime against Nashville, leading to a Matt Boldy game winner. This type of win often galvanizes a team and the Wild need to go on a run to make the playoffs. Tonight, the Arizona Coyotes are visiting Minnesota as one of the league’s worst road teams. Arizona has 10 wins away from home and have 4 wins in their last 10 after going winless for more than a month.
The Coyotes will be without Barett Hayton tonight, one of their top players. The Wild are a galvanized team who will be playing energized hockey. Both teams have played high scoring games recently, sailing over 6.5 goals in 70% of the games. The Coyotes have given up 4+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games, with the model expecting the Wild to score 4.06 goals in tonight’s matchup. There is an option to play Minnesota -1.5, however Minnesota has covered that in only 3 of their last 10 games.
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Detroit ML (+110)
The Red Wings are in a battle for their playoff lives and getting them at plus-money against a worse team feels like a trap, but the data backs them. Detroit has stumbled, going 5-5 over their last 10 while Bowen Byram has injected some pizzaz into the Sabres lineup. Furthermore, they are struggling to keep the puck out of their net, surrendering 4+ goals in 5 of their last 10. It is difficult to outscore your opponent when you need to put up a 5 spot to have a chance in half the games. Detroit is desperate and is the better team on paper, if there is a game to turn this around, it is this one.
Neither team is good from a possession perspective, with both teams surrendering more than they produce at 5v5 in the way of expected goals and scoring chances. The Red Wings rank 5th in 5v5 goals per 60, ahead of teams like Florida, Toronto and Vegas. Detroit’s scoring has dried up of late with all of Debrincat and Kane going cold, and Larkin going down to injury. The two have combined for 2 points in their last 5 games, despite creating the most scoring chances on the team. Against a young D core in Buffalo, those two will need to breakthrough if Detroit is going to fend off the Islanders for a Wild Card spot in the East.
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Top Player Props
Mikko Rantanen Assist (-130)
Rantanen has been red hot for the Avalanche of late and they play the Flames who have been outscored 12-3 in their last two games. He’s recorded an assist in 9 consecutive games. He’s got an 82% chance of recording an assist against the Flames according to the model. Calgary recently traded two of their best defencemen in Tanev and Hanifin and Colorado’s power play has scored at a 38% success rate in the last two weeks. Rantanen is a key part of the Avalanche powerplay, making it more likely he records an assist tonight.
Connor Bedard Over 3.5 Shots (-140)
The young Chicago superstar is benefiting from a changed mindset the past week. The coaches have encouraged him to use his lethal release more and he’s taken that to heart. He’s become the primary shooter on the power play and has recorded an average of 12 shot attempts per game in the last week, leading to 4.35 shots per game. The Ducks take a lot of penalties and more power play time means more opportunity for Bedard to shoot. The Ducks surrender a copious amount of shots on a nightly basis and do not have the horses to stop Bedard who is averaging more than 5 minutes of power play time of late. With his new found confidence coming off a 3 points game on Sunday, expect Bedard to be the best player on the ice in the Slackin for Macklin bowl tonight in Chicago.
Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots (-160)
Vegas is sputtering of late, only winning 3 of their last 10 games. Injures have completely depleted their lineup and caused them to rely heavily on their top players who remain healthy. Marchessault has hit his line in 3 of 5, but in the 2 games he missed, he had 2 shots and is averaging 12(!) shot attempts in the last 3 games. 12 shots attempts should result in 4 or 5 shots, and Marchessault is projected for 3.86 shots against Seattle tonight. Both teams are in a heated playoff battle meaning Bruce Cassidy will need to lean heavily on Eichel and Marchessault to carry the offensive load in tonight’s matchup.
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Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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