By the Numbers: Best Bets for Tonight’s NHL Games (4/30)

Two teams have been dispatched in the playoffs, with Florida and the New York Rangers advancing to the second round. Four teams have a chance to join them tonight, and it could be the last 4-game day of the NHL season (cries). Tonight’s best bets feature some new guys, who have been performing at peak level thus far. When the going gets tough, the tough get going, let’s get in the lab and cook some bets.

Carolina 60-min ML (-155)

The time has come. The Canes are ready, the clock is approaching midnight on the Islanders improbable run. Carolina is a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and will want to finish off the Islanders after watching the Rangers dispatch the Capitals in four games. Those two teams will meet in the second round barring an improbable Islanders comeback. Rest is the best weapon in the playoffs and if Carolina wants to equip themselves well for the second round, it starts with sending the Isles home tonight. On home ice, the Canes have a boisterous crowd with last change and should be able to capitalize on it. The model gives the Canes an expected win% of 64%. While there is value on the Islanders ML at +210, they were luck to pull a singular win out and given the Canes season long ability to bounce back after a loss, I’m staying away from the value. The Canes should get this done in a low scoring affair. The Canes are the better team with depth at every position, a better defensive corps and much more scoring prowess. This wasn’t supposed to be a close series and you can expect Rod Brind’Amour’s team to play inspired and get the job done in regulation, this evening.

If you’re looking to get access to Kevin and the rest of the analytics that back these picks, sign up with Betalytics! You get all the picks and edges to make the books pay you this playoff season.

Valeri Nichushkin Over 2.5 Shots (-166)

Choo Choo!!!! All board! Valeri Nichushkin has been a beast for the Colorado Avalanche, scoring in every single game so far. He’s been a thorn in the side of the Winnipeg Jets and that’s unlikely to change tonight. In a do or die game, Winnipeg will have to score to keep up with the juggernaut Avs. Since being moved to the top line with Mackinnon, Nichushkin has produced at top level. Nichushkin has hit this line in five consecutive games and has 5 shots in two of those games. He’s a good bet for a point as well and combining his shots on goal with a point is a good parlay for less juice. However, there is always the chance that Connor Hellebuyck pulls a rabbit out of his hat. If that is the case, the Avs will rely on their top line featuring Nichushkin to create scoring chances. Playing the net front, he’s in a prime position to rack up the shots and Winnipeg hasn’t had an answer for him or his line, all series. Hop on the Choo Choo train and let’s go for a ride to the bank!

Cale Makar 1+ Assist (-175)

Did you see the goal Makar scored in Game 4? Genuinely ridiculous effort. Look at this.

Oh my god Cale Makar pic.twitter.com/L0SAfibret

— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) April 28, 2024

Yeah…special players do special things. He chopped up the Winnipeg coverage like a (K)ale salad on the dinner table. He doesn’t score much, but he’s recorded an assist in every game of the series. Similar to Nichushkin, we aren’t getting off the Cale salad until we have to. This play has juice and is an obvious parlay option with the above bet. Makar is the powerplay quarterback, the offensive driver from the backend and as evidenced by the above clip, capable of creating things all on his own. There is nothing indicating the jets have figured out how to slow him down. There are so many opportunities and weapons for Makar to distribute the puck to, it is hard to imagine him coming up empty. This line has an expected win% of 69% – NICE! Hopefully Makar treats us nice and cashes for a fifth straight playoff game.

Pavel Zacha Over 1.5 Shots (-170)

It’s an elimination game for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Without Auston Matthews, it isn’t nearly as tall of a task for Boston. Pavel Zacha has two shots in every game of the series, thus far. Without Matthews to contend with, Boston should have an easier time freeing up their centers for offensive opportunities. Elimination games are always the most difficult, and there is a scenario, albeit slim, where Boston is trailing in this game. Regardless of game state, Zacha is a key offensive player and is the beneficiary of rebound opportunities from David Pastrnak, the Bruins prolific scorer. Given his shot attempts and coach’s reliance on Zacha’s line to produce offence, there will be plenty of opportunity for him to shoot the puck and clear his line. Take this on a book that includes overtime to be safe.