By The Numbers: Best Bets on Today’s NHL Games (4/13)

It is the last Saturday of the NHL regular season and the Eastern Conference playoff race is coming down to the wire. 4 teams are battling for a spot in the playoffs and there are critical points on the table tonight. Pittsburgh plays Boston, The Islanders picked up a point against the Rangers and Detroit visits Toronto. Auston Matthews is chasing 70 and has 3 games to score 2 goals. There are 10 games left on the NHL slate tonight, let’s get in the lab and cook up tonight’s best bets!

The race for the playoffs in the East continues with the @NYIslanders (37-27-15, 89 points), @penguins (37-30-12, 86 points), @Capitals (37-31-11, 85 points), @DetroitRedWings (38-32-9, 85 points) and @NHLFlyers (37-32-11, 85 points) in action.#NHLStats: https://t.co/UOLW1rKoT7 pic.twitter.com/TabejZZIPN

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 13, 2024

Game Best Bets

If you’re interested in getting the best edges on the lines and the inspiration for these betting pieces, you can get access to all the data and models at BetAlytics!

Toronto ML (-180)

The season is all but lost for the Red Wings, as they struggle to keep pace in the playoff race. They’ll need two points out o f tonight’s matchup and they play a Leafs team who will come out hungry to finish their season strong. The Leafs have been inconsistent of late, but Detroit struggles to defend against star players. With Toronto’s balanced offensive lines, this should pose major issues for Detroit. The Leafs are more than 80% to win tonight, and Betalytics sees value in the puck line (-1.5). With an implied win% of 61%m but an expected win percentage over 80%, this is a value play. Expect Detroit to come out hungry but struggle to keep Toronto’s scoring at bay. There is lots to love about an Original Six matchup, especially when the best goal scorer is gunning to achieve something that hasn’t been accomplished in three decades. Back the Leafs to come out hard in response to a loss on Thursday night.

Boston ML (-130)

The Bruins have been inconsistent of late, while the Penguins are 7-0-3 in their last 10. They’ve put themselves in the driver’s seat for the final Wild Card spot. However, Alex Nedeljkovic is starting his 11th consecutive game and is showing signs of fatigue. Against David Pastrnak and the Bruins, this could spell trouble. The Bruins are 55% to win tonight, meaning there is no value on the line and it shouldn’t be taken above -135. However, this is a bet on the fatigue factor versus a team trying to get themselves sorted heading into the playoffs. Boston is disciplined and finds a way to win tight games in the spring. They are the stronger team on paper and regardless of form, have the advantage against Pittsburgh. The Penguins have been running full steam ahead for the last few weeks and are primed for a let down. The last Saturday of the season at home is a prime letdown spot. When you factor in fatigue and quality of team, it feels like the run without a regulation loss may come to an end.

Top Player Props

Trevor Moore Over 2.5 Shots (-160)

Moore and the Kings play the lowly Anaheim Ducks tonight, who are on the second half of a back to back. That’s a tough spot for the Ducks to be, giving LA is fighting for playoff seeding. Trevor Moore has consistently hit this line over the course of the season and tonight should be no different. He has one of the best matchups on the slate and is primed to take advantage of the Ducks defensive woes. Betalytics projected him for nearly 3.5 shots, with an xWin% of 68%. In a top-6 role with the Kings, Moore has become a volume shooter, seeing his shot attempts rise significantly over over the last two seasons. The Ducks are bottom-5 in shots allowed and struggle to defend against the cycle. LA plays a heavy game with lots of cycling, puck retrievals and shot-driven offence. This bodes well for Moore against a tired team that lacks the defensive capabilities to reduce shot attempts. Back Moore over 2.5 and look at a ladder play.

Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots (-110)

Hyman has been key cog for the Oilers all season, specially without McDavid. McDavid’s status for tonight’s matchup with Vancouver is questionable, meaning he isn’t anywhere close to 100%. Hyman is the league’s premier net-front presence and get a ton of secondary scoring opportunities off rebounds and loose pucks around the net front. There are many times he’s recorded 2 or 3 shots in a single sequence. The Oilers are trying to chase down Vancouver for top of the Pacific and need a regulation win to pull within a point, with a game in hand. Hyman has a knack for showing up and performing well in these games, I expect no different tonight. Betalytics projected him with a 58% chance to hit his total and a shot projection of 4.05. That is with McDavid in the lineup. Without McDavid, his shot share increases and he’s projected for 4.82 shots. Whether the league’s premier superstar plays or not, Hyman is a good bet to rack up the shots tonight in a Pacific Division showdown.