By The Numbers: Best Bets on Today’s NHL Playoff Games (4/26)

The NHL Playoffs are here, and we’ve got some surprises. From Florida going up 3-0 to Vegas winning twice in Dallas, it has been quite the first week. Best bets continue to find great value and spots to win money. With four games on the schedule tonight, there are plenty of spots. The Canucks and Predators are deadlocked at a win a piece, the Kings stole home ice advantage, and the Avalanche are looking to continue their winning ways in Denver. Four pivotal games, let’s dive in and find the best bets for tonight’s matchups.

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Edmonton Oilers ML (-130)

The Los Angeles Kings are coming home with home-ice advantage after taking Game 2 in overtime. As Shaggy broke down here, the Oilers are the better team with more offensive capabilities. The Oilers are likely to take at least one, if not both of the games in Los Angeles. They are the better team and even with a model adjustment for home-ice advantage, the Oilers have a 60% chance to win tonight’s game. The Kings have not been able to slow down the top players on the Oilers, and conceded four goals on Wednesday. There are no signs of the Oilers slowing down and they were recipients of depth scoring, something that should be terrifying for the Kings given their only advantage is forward depth. Keep McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman to a combined four points is unlikely to happen twice in a row, meaning the Kings could be in trouble tonight. Regardless of matchup, those players will have their scoring chances and should they be successful in capitalizing, there is very little that can be done. The Oilers have the Kings number, and are a poor matchup from a stylistic perspective. In a pivotal third game, expect the better team to emerge victorious. It’s likely to be another high scoring matchup, meaning taking the over is also a shrewd bet. I will be taking both.

Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots (-175)

Zibanejad has been one of the best players in the Rangers/Capitals series with the series shifting to Washington. Down 2-0, the Rangers have the opportunity to put their foot on the throats of the Capitals, who have struggled to handle the Rangers depth and skill. Zibanejad has 1o shots through the first two games, going over this line with ease in the first two games of the series. The Capitals have no answer for the Zibanejad line and their ability to create scoring chances off the rush or the cycle. The Rangers forward is projected from 3.42 shots, which would be his lowest output of the series. While the Capitals will have matchup advantage on home ice, it is unlikely they have the personnel to cut Zibanejad’s shot attempts in half, which would be necessary to see him fall under this line. When he’s cooking, the Rangers let him cook, finding him for scoring chances and relying on him to carry the load for his line. He’s an offensive play driver that a younger Capitals team has had no answer for. Not only am I taking this line, I’m laddering him to 5+ shots. Find a book that doesn’t restrict this to regulation time and take it there.

Adrian Kempe 1+ Point & 3+ Shots (+110)

NHL SHEETS 4.26 ?

Love this slate tonight. A couple games could be treasure troves.

? by @ParlayScience x @propsdotcash pic.twitter.com/8F2pHalMmj

— Gretzky Betzky (@gretzkybetzkys) April 26, 2024

It is always a good feeling when me and Betzky are on the same side of the ledger and tonight, that’s what we’ve got with Adrian Kempe. Adrian Kempe has been the Kings best player through two games in the series, with four points and 12 shots. With 5 in the first game and 7 in the second, Kempe has been a puck firing machine for the Kings. He’s also put up two points in each of the first two games, and consistency is key. Kempe is another ladder candidate given how the first two games have transpired. He creates the most scoring chances for the Kings, plays top powerplay minutes and should benefit from a better matchup at home. If you don’t trust his ability to record a point tonight, parlaying him with Zibanejad’s shots is a play to consider. When combined, the model gives this a 58% chance to hit, more than 10% value on the +110 line. Both the plays are more than 65% to hit if taken as singles, but are heavily juiced. Trust the Kings best player to get it done tonight.

Roman Josi 1+ Point (-190)

If you don’t like the juice, you can take the assist. He’s more likely to record an assist, but the point is the safer play. Josi has been the Preds best player and benefits from his team not facing the likely Vezina runner-up in Thatcher Demko. As Josi goes, the Preds go and they are projected to win tonight’s pivotal game three. If that is the script, and the model believes it is, Josi is going to have to put up at least one point. He’s the offensive catalyst from the back end and the quarterback of the Preds powerplay. Josi’s demonstrate ability to create scoring chances and drive offensive play are the reason he finished second in scoring by a defenceman this season. He’s an excellent playoff player. He was held without a point in two straight games only four times this season and not since December. After not recording a point on Tuesday night, it is highly unlikely to happen again. The model gives him a more than 70% of recording a point in tonight’s matchup. He’s there best player playing at home in the playoffs, back him!