By The Numbers: Best NHL Bets Today (4/24)

The NHL Playoffs are here, the first round has been buck wild and the books are getting cooked! Best bets continue to find great value and spots to win money. With three games on the schedule tonight, there are plenty of spots because they are three of the best series thus far. The Leafs and Bruins are deadlocked at a win a piece, the Stars have lost home ice advantage and the Oilers looked like an offensive juggernaut against the Kings in their first game. Three pivotal games, let’s dive in and find the best bets for tonight’s matchups.

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Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (-125)

Connor McDavid went psycho mode in game 1 against Los Angeles, tallying five(!) assists. The average NHL player would not tally 5 assists in an entire playoff round and this guy did it in a single game. McDavid is the best player on the planet and somehow, he finds another gear in the playoffs. It really shouldn’t be allowed, but he figures out a way to be a complete menace in the playoffs. Over his last 10 games against LA, he’s averaged 2.2 points per game, for a total of 22 points. Over his career, he averages 1.53 points per game in the playoffs. That is third all-time behind Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux, two of the greatest players in hockey history. While the Kings have two solid defensive centers in Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault, they have been no match for #PlayoffMcDavid. My model projects McDavid for 1.92 points tonight, which is a staggering projection for any game – let alone a playoff game. McDavid tallies 2+ points more often than he goes pointless and I will continue to play this line until he makes it unprofitable. I don’t foresee that happening anytime soon, so let’s roll with the best player in the game.

Jake Debrusk Over 0.5 Points (+110)

Speaking of playoff performers, Jake Debrusk loves playing the Toronto Maple Leafs. The guy terrorizes the Leafs in every playoffs series they’ve played in, averaging 1.2 points per game in the last 10 meetings. Through two games, Debrusk has 4 points. His powerplay unit is firing with success and the Leafs penalty has been downright horrendous. The combination of that and his sterling record against Toronto in the month of April makes this an appealing bet. Some players find a way to raise their game when they play an arch rival and that’s exactly what Debrusk does. He consistently finds a way to involve himself in the game and the model gives him a 67% chance to record a point in tonight’s game. Back the player who consistently finds his way onto the scoresheet against the Leafs and take advantage of his line before it becomes too juiced,

Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots (-165)

Auston Matthews single-handedly won game 2 for Toronto on Monday night, tallying he game winner, three points and eight(!) shots. No, that is not a typo, he had eight shots on goal to lead all players. It is the most by any player in the playoffs thus far. He’s hit this line in five straight games and seven of his last 10. Against Boston, he elevates and has 53 shots in his last 10 games against them. He is quite clearly Toronto’s offensive catalyst and seems to be their only healthy superstar. Matthews has the ability to completely dominate a game, as we saw on Monday night. While it isn’t a foregone conclusion that he wil do that every night, he’s playing extremely well, generating a preposterous amount of scoring chances and finding ways to gets pucks to the net. The model objects him for 5.21 shots in tonight’s matchup. Given the injuries to Boston’s defence and the demonstrated ability to win an unfavourable matchup on the road, Matthews should have no trouble clearing this line with a matchup advantage on home ice. In this article, we back the best players and we’re doing it here.

Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 Shots (-140)

Tonight is a pivotal game for Los Angeles. Going down 2-0 to Edmonton before you touch down at home would be a mountain to climb. That’s not to say it is impossible, but certainly improbable. Kempe is an offensive driver and the Kings’ primary shooter. He plays top line minutes and easily cleared this line in game 1. While we shouldn’t expect a 10+ goal barnburner, we should expect the Kings to come out firing. They will have confidence in their ability to generate offence after game 1 and will need to rely on Kempe to do that again. Betalaytics projects him to go over his number with a B grade and my model has him projected for 3.42 shots. He’s averaged 4.7 in the last 10 games the Oilers, who aren’t elite defensively. Kempe should be able to ue his speed effectively to generate chance at even strength and on the powerplay. If the Kings are going to even the series, Adrain Kempe will need to be an offensive catalyst for them. With a great record against the Oilers, Kempe is a reliable player to back in this spot and is a good ladder candidate.