By The Numbers: Best NHL Bets Today (4/4)

We’re in the home stretch, we the after burners are on. If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! Crosby and Ovechkin face-off in a crucial playoff battle, the Tkachuk brother rivalry is renewed, and a battle between Boston and Carolina highlights the slate tonight.  There are 9 games in the NHL today, starting at 7PM ET, let’s get in the lab.

Crucial points will be on the line as Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin go head-to-head on @Sportsnet programming, while the Western Conference Wild Card race takes the spotlight when the @StLouisBlues and @PredsNHL clash on @ESPNPlus and @hulu.#NHLStats: https://t.co/x1tL8PwD67 pic.twitter.com/9oczu96PRU

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 4, 2024

Top Game Lines

Pittsburgh ML (-115)

Two of the greatest players of all time square off tonight in their most important game of the season. Pittsburgh is three points back of Washington for the final Wild Card spot and needs a win (in regulation) to avoid missing the playoffs. Seven games is not a lot of time to make up a three point gap and the Penguins cannot afford to have Washington widen the gap. The Penguins are coming off a huge win against New Jersey on Tuesday, where Crosby scored twice and the team performed to their capabilities. Washington got their lunch handed to them by Buffalo on Tuesday night and is looking to get back in the win column with the Red Wings, Islanders and Penguins chasing them in the final playoff spot. The model favors Pittsburgh in this spot, with Betalytics giving the Penguins a 55% chance to win tonight’s matchup. The Penguins are playing in a few high scoring games of late and don’t count out Sidney Crosby to have a big night when his team needs him most. It’s going to be a tight one, but the Penguins have the small edge here with recent performances.

Top Player Props

Anthony Duclair Over 1.5 Shots (-175)

Tampa Bay is coming off a convincing win against Toronto on Wednesday night and are rounding into their monstrous playoff form, a yearly tradition. Duclair has been a great addition since coming over from San Jose at the trade deadline. He’s fit in nicely with their top-six and returns to his home province of Quebec to face the Montreal Canadiens. He’s hit this line with ease since joining the Bolts and you can bet that he’ll want to get on the scoresheet in front of friends and family. Duclair’s style of play has meshed well in Tampa and he continues to generate scoring opportunities with more talented line mates. His shot attempts have skyrocketed and against a team that struggles defensively, Duclair is in a great spot to hit his line. I’d play him for 3+ as well.

Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 Shots (-160)

It is the battle of the Tkachuk brothers tonight and hopefully they spend more time playing hockey instead of fighting. Grandma Tkachuk was thoroughly unpleased when they fought in a recent matchup.

Brady Tkachuk has been clearing this line with ease, racking up the shots of late. He gets to the net front, battles and drives the net off the rush. He’s hit in 7 of his last 10. Florida is leaking heavy oil right now, losing 8 of their last 10 and giving up 3+ goals in 80% of their recent games. That is way too many for a playoff contender and while they may be banged up, that’s a recipe for Tkachuk success. He takes advantage of teams who are tired by winning puck battles, physically engaging and driving. He’s projected for 4.36 shots in tonight’s contest, and there is some value on a ladder play.

Sidney Crosby Point + Adrian Kempe Point (-105)

The model’s top props of the day are combining for a parlay. Sidney Crosby plays a pivotal game in the Penguins season and Adrain Kempe is playing the Sharks. In this house, we fade the Sharks. Kempe has a point in 8 of 10 and 4 of his last 5. He’s the primary offensive driver for Los Angeles and they have relied on him significantly down the stretch. The model gives him a nearly 80% to record a point tonight, which is good enough to put in a parlay. Sidney Crosby has been red hot, willing his team into the playoff race. With points in all of his last 10 games, he’s reminded everyone that Father Time has not caught up with him yet. He’s over 80% to record a point and frankly, it’s more likely he records 2+ points than 0 points with the way he’s playing. Set it and forget it, as the Crosby has torched the Capitals in his career and with playoffs on the line tonight, expect 87 to be at his very best.