By The Numbers: NHL Eastern Conference Betting Preview

It is the best time of the hockey season, the first round of the playoffs is upon us. The first round of the NHL playoffs is the best round. Teams are the freshest they will be, the chaos meter is cranked to 11 and the rulebook goes out the window. With all four Eastern Conference playoff matchups set and series prices out, we’ll dive into the numbers to find out what to expect from each series and some wagers to place.

The playoffs are a different animal. A lot of it is left to random chance unless there is a chasm difference between the opponents. As far as the Eastern Conference playoff picture shook out, there is definitely one of those. Outside of the potential sweep, the model expects most series to last 6 or 7 games. Every series has a very interesting storyline from previous meetings or historical context. As much as the model can’t account for that, if you follow hockey, you know that certain narratives have to be accounted for. As always, we’ll rely on the model and numbers to guide the analysis and make adjustments for various impactful storylines.

New York Rangers (1) vs. Washington Capitals (8)

This series a complete and utter mismatch. Washington became the first teams to qualify for the playoffs with more than a -25 goal differential, as their goal difference is a whopping -37! It has never happened and for good reason, it is the third worst goal differential in the conference ahead of Montreal and Columbus who finished bottom-5 in the league standings. If not for the loser point, Washington’s spot would have been taken by Detroit, who own a +4 differential. The Rangers were the NHL’s best regular season team and finished with a +53 goal differential, for a difference of 90!

As evidenced by the chart above, the Rangers have the advantage in every category. Their powerplay is better. Their penalty kill is better. Their 5on5 play is light years ahead of Washington. Their goaltending is better. On paper, the Rangers have more depth at every position and more experience behind the bench, as one coach has been in the league for two decades, while the other is in his first year. The model gives the Rangers a 74% chance to win the series, with the most likely outcome being a 5 game series victory. Series Correct Score 4-1 pays +290 and has some value, but the most valuable ticket is the Rangers to sweep at +520. This is the most lopsided series over the last 5 years and the Rangers have a golden opportunity to make light work of an inferior opponent. There is no value on the -375 series price. Taking the Game 1 Winner/Series Double of Rangers/Rangers at -145 is the best value if you want to avoid a correct score bet.

Carolina Hurricanes (2) vs. New York Islanders (7)

A rematch of last season’s first round matchup is back! The Carolina Hurricanes made it all the way to Conference Final last season, where their lack of scoring cost them the series. That shouldn’t be a problem this year with the acquisition of Jake Guentzel and the continued development of Seth Jarvis and Martin Necas. The Canes have more depth throughout their lineup than the Islanders do and play style of game that is predicated on getting pucks to the net and minimizing scoring chances. The Islanders went on a run under Patrick Roy after he replaced Lane Lambert in the middle of the season. Their top line will need to score consistently if they are going to take down a bonafide Cup Contender.

Looking at the matchup, there are two areas that Canes have a distinct advantage. The Canes had the league’s best penalty kill this season, while the Islanders owned the worst. While there are less powerplay opportunities in the playoffs, that chasmic difference could be huge as these two teams have a propensity to play in one goal games. Carolina is dominant at 5on5 and has been for years. Their ability to dictate play could have a major impact on the outcome of the series. Ilya Sorokin has struggled and if the Islanders have any chance, their goaltending will need to be outstanding. The model has the Hurricanes heavily favored to win the series at 71%, with the most likely outcome at six games. Hurricanes in 5 or 6 games represent 40% of the possible series outcomes. Given how these teams played during the regular season, there is reason to believe the series could last 6 or 7 games, but the Canes have a clear advantage.

Florida Panthers (3) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (6)

If this series is half as entertaining as the series a couple years ago that saw all out brawls, we’re in for a good one. The Lightning are not the Lightning of year’s past and the Panthers are arguably the deepest team in the East. It’s a battle of an elite offensive line versus two of the league’s best defensive forwards. The problem with Tampa is, they seem to be able to crank it up a few notches in the playoffs. Nikita Kucherov cracked the 100 assist mark and was the league’s leading point getter during the regular season. Andrei Vasilevskiy is, somehow, not the best goaltender in the series but given Bobrovsky’s history, that can change in a heart beat. The reality of this matchup is, it is going to be nasty and a war of attrition. If Florida’s depth significantly outplays Tampa’s, then Tampa is in big trouble. If Kucherov, Stamkos and Point are able to overcome the defensive prowess of Florida’s top players, they’ve got a shot to upset Florida.

Looking at the numbers, it seems pretty even. However, Florida’s defensive advantage is a key point of difference. They are far and way the better defensive team and that can be the difference in the playoffs. In order to keep Tampa at bay, they need to be disciplined. Florida is full of the rat archetype, but they can ill afford to get into penalty trouble against Tampa, who is scoring at will. If the series is played at 5on5, Florida has a distinct advantage. If special teams becomes a pervasive theme, the advantage could swing towards Tampa. The model has Florida as a 58% favorite to win the series with the most likely outcome being 6 games. Florida at +430 on a correct score bet has 8% value and is worthy of a sprinkle. Florida should win this series, but expect it to be long and nasty.

Boston Bruins (4) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (5)

They meet again…absolute nightmare fuel for Toronto fans. If there is one team that fans didn’t want to see in the first round, it was Boston. The Bruins are a different animal in the playoffs and there hasn’t been a series where a key player on Toronto wasn’t suspended. For whatever reason, the Leafs get squirrelly against the Bruins and the TD Garden has been a house of horrors. For context, the Bruins have one advantage in this series and of course, it is the one that makes the biggest difference: goaltending. Swayman and Ullmark are the best goaltending one-two punch in the NHL and have been for a couple of years. Both are well rested because neither was overplayed this season. Toronto has had more than their fair share of playoff goaltending nightmares and this is setting up to be exactly that.

Outside of Pastrnak, the Leafs have the advantage in every over player matchup. Toronto’s offence strongly outweighs Boston, largely because Boston lacks star quality players outside of Pastrnak up front. If Toronto is going to win the series, it will be because their skater depth was too big a hill for Boston to overcome. If Boston wins, it will be because their goaltenders were better than Toronto’s and shut down Toronto’s offensive weapons.

Looking at the simple breakdowns, it is clear that Toronto is the better offensive team, while Boston is the better defensive team. The battle between Boston’s powerplay and Toronto’s penalty kill will be intriguing. Historically, a lot of penalties are not called when these teams play, but all you need is one to be the difference. This should be the highest series of the first round in the East and is truly, a coin flip. The model has Boston at 51% to win with the most likely outcome being a Game 7 win. The best way to bet this series is to take the over on the number of games. If Toronto wins, it will likely be in 6 games, whereas Boston’s most likely path is a 7-game victory. This has all the makings of another classic series with two teams who despise each other. There will be fireworks, and it shouldn’t take long for the fuse to be lit.