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Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks (2/27): Another High Scoring Affair in Toronto
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
nhl
Vegas Golden Knights Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-175
6
+100o
+140
Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+160
6
-101u
-155
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameOne of the games of the night is a rematch of last week’s goal fest featuring the NHL’s leading goal scorer, Auston Matthews, leading his team to their longest winning streak in more than two decades. The Toronto Maple Leafs (33-16-8) take on the Vegas Golden Knights (32-19-7) at Scotiabank Arena at 7 PM ET.
G A M E D A Y ?
? @TSN_Sports | ? @FAN590@Scotiabank // #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/QvLDXgs0RN
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) February 27, 2024
The Vegas Golden Knights are mired with injuries and are without their top two forwards in Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. Against Toronto’s high-octane offence, they’ll need to depend on their defensive structure to keep the puck out of their net. Vegas is 4-5-1 in their last 10 and has surrendered 3+ goals in 6 of those games. They’ve scored 3+ in 8 of those games and have had success against lessor opponents.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have win seven straight games for the first time in 20 years. Tonight, they will be without Timothy Liljegren who is half of what has become a reliable defensive pair with TJ Brodie. Toronto will play with six left-landed players tonight, meaning three will play their off side. That is not generally a recipe for success.
A key area to watch tonight will be the depth matchup. Vegas is thin on forwad and it was exposed last week by Toronto. John Tavares’ and David Kampf’s lines dominated the Golden Knights, overpowering their depth players and scoring at will. If that continues tonight, Vegas will be hard pressed to win barring an outstanding goaltending performance from Adin Hill.
Golden Knights vs Leafs NHL Betting Tonight (2/27)
Golden Knights vs Leafs Matchup Information
Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs (33-16-8, 15-10-2 Home) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (32-19-7, 13-10-5 Away)
Venue & Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)
Date: Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024
Game Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Time
How to Watch Golden Knights vs Leafs: TSN, Fubo
Golden Knights vs Leafs NHL Betting Odds
Golden Knights vs Leafs odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Tuesday Feb. 27 at 11:30 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
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Golden Knights vs Leafs Puck Line
Vegas Golden Knights +1.5 (-180)
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+160)
Golden Knights vs Leafs Over/Under
Over 6.5 Goals (+102)
Under 6.5 Goals (-118)
Golden Knights vs Leafs Moneyline
Vegas Golden Knights (+140)
Toronto Maple Leafs (-155)
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Golden Knights vs Leafs Betting Trends
Vegas has scored 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 games, including 3 vs Toronto last week.
Toronto has scored 4+ goals in 8 of their last 10 games, including 7 vs Vegas last week.
The Total hit OVER 6.5 in 7 of last 10 Leafs games and 5 of last 10 Golden Knights games, with the teams combining for 10 last week in Vegas.
Auston Matthews has 7 goals in his last 5 games and Mitch Marner has 2+ assists in 6 of his last 7 games.
Golden Knights vs Leafs Prediction & Pick (2/27): Can the Maple Leafs Extend Their Longest Winning Streak in 20 Years?
Golden Knights vs Leafs Prediction: High Scoring Affair in the Rematch Thursday’s Goal-Palooza
The Maple Leafs are back from their western road trip and are the hottest team in the NHL, winning seven straight. Auston Matthews did not find the score sheet in Colorado on Saturday and is a good candidate to score tonight. Toronto’s depth will be a key factor in tonight’s game, as their role players consistently dominated the Vegas counterparts last week. Both teams have played in high scoring affairs of late and there is little reason to expect tonight to be any different. Given the trends and my model’s projection, Over 6.5 at plus money has significant value tonight.
The Golden Knights have struggled to play well consistently this season and injuries are a major part of that. Without Eichel or Stone, Vegas is leaning on William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessealt and Nic Roy to provide offence up front. Both teams have been scoring early in games, the first period Over 1.5 line looks great for two teams who generally score in the first 10 minutes of the game.
Player Props to Watch in Golden Knights vs Leafs (2/27)
Mitch Marner Over 1.5 Assists (+270) BOVADA
Marner has hit this line in 6 of his last 7 and has 2+ points in 7 straight games. The powerplay is red hot and the puck goes through Marner. Given Matthews’ ability to find the back of the night, Marner will have his opportunities to tally assists tonight. He scored on Saturday night, and the safer play is 2+ points, but I’m rocking with his ability to find teammates for scoring chances on a consistent basis.
Auston Matthews Goal (-130) BOVADA
The NHL’s leading goal scorer is an automatic bet for me this season. Matthews has scored 7 goals in his last 5 games and has more multi-goal games than 0 goal games in his last 5. No, that is not a typo. I don’t love the negative odds, but at this point, he’s more likely to score 2 goals than 0. You can take a flier at 2+ goals for +460.
William Karlsson Over 0.5 Points (-155) BOVADA
Without Eichel and Stone, Karlsson has stepped up for Vegas. He’s registered 5 points in his last 5 games and finds himself on the top powerplay unit. He’s playing on the top line with Marchessealt and Brisson, meaning he’ll see plenty of offensive zone starts and scoring chances. Given Toronto’s absences on defence tonight, Karlsson should find the open space and creating chances to score. If this is going to be a high scoring game, expect Karlsson to be on the scoresheet
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Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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