Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction & Picks: Toronto Adds to Tampa Bay’s Road Struggles

After a grueling 82-game regular season, the 2022-23 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are here. The Eastern Conference is filled with impressive first-round matchups, including one between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs. Hockey enthusiasts know just how intense a Lightning vs Maple Leafs playoff series can get, making Game 1 a must-see event Tuesday.

Lightning like to mix things up

Leafs are ready

Sheldon Keefe: "That stuff doesn’t bother us. Our guys are going to stand their ground … You don’t shy away. You don’t get on your heels. We are a team that is going to play on its toes"https://t.co/WVSVVkVsgX

— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) April 17, 2023

The Maple Leafs and Lightning collided three times during the regular season, resulting in two victories for Toronto. The Lightning won the first encounter, 4-3 in overtime, back on Dec. 3 before the Maple Leafs notched a 4-1 victory at Scotiabank Arena 17 days later. The two sides met for one final time on April 11, ending with Toronto narrowly exiting with a 4-3 win.

For those wondering about Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting opportunities, Betting News has you covered. Here’s a look at Game 1’s latest odds, as well as a prediction and the best bets for Tuesday’s action.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (Series tied 0-0)
• Venue & Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, Ontario)
• Date: Tuesday, April 18, 2023
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
• Lightning vs Maple Leafs TV Info: ESPN

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Monday, April 17 at 10:24 p.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 (-178)
• Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+146)

Over/Under

• Over 5.5 Goals (-138)
• Under 5.5 Goals (+112)

Moneyline

• Tampa Bay Lightning +136
• Toronto Maple Leafs -164

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay is 1-6 straight up in its last seven road games.
• Toronto is 13-7 straight up in its last 20 home games.
• The total has hit the over in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games.
• The total has hit the over in seven of Toronto’s last eight games played on a Tuesday.
• The total has hit the over in seven of the last nine Tampa Bay-Toronto matchups.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Preview

The Lightning may have picked up a victory in their regular-season finale, but that win took place at Amalie Arena. Now, they must open the playoffs on the road, which hasn’t been kind to them lately.

The Lightning have tasted defeat in six of their last seven road games, getting 31-17 over that stretch. A big part of Tampa Bay’s shortcomings during that skid stem from poor defensive and goaltending showings, highlighted by its allowing at least six goals in each of the last three away contests.

Unfortunately for the Lightning, the Maple Leafs have no shortage of offensive threats. Four Toronto players finished the regular season with at least 80 points — two of which were William Nylander (87) and Auston Matthews (85), who tallied 40 goals apiece. Mitchell Marner led the charger with 99 points while John Tavares had exactly 80.

The Maple Leafs’ top players have helped them average a solid 3.91 goals over their last 11 home games, scoring at least five on as many occasions. For reference, Tampa Bay is only averaging 2.43 goals in its previous seven road games.

Leafs' Knies could be scratched for Game 1 vs. Lightning

MORE: https://t.co/MkjiQObKpl pic.twitter.com/xADzjeeK2Q

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) April 16, 2023

Goaltending will also be an important factor in Game 1. The Lightning turn to former Vezina Trophy-winner Andrei Vasilevskiy, who’s been streaky ahead of the playoffs. On one hand, he has a 2.53 goals-against average and .921 save percentage with two shutouts in his last eight starts. On the other, he lost five of those games while finishing with a sub-.900 SV% four times.

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs hope that Ilya Samonsov can lead them to victory in Game 1. The Russian netminder has played some of his best hockey as of late, going 4-2-3 over his last nine starts with a 2.02 GAA, .933 SV% and one shutout.

As for special teams, both teams are elite on the power play. Toronto has a 26.0% success rate on the man advantage (No. 2) while Tampa Bay is right behind at 25.4% (No. 3). When it comes to the penalty kill, the Maple Leafs rank No. 12 at 81.9%, whereas the Lightning clock in at No. 15 (70.7%).

Keeping the above in mind, the Maple Leafs are fuelled by something that doesn’t show up on the scoresheet: revenge. Toronto must use Game 1 to send a message to Tampa Bay, showing that this isn’t the same team as last year.

The Maple Leafs were also the higher seed last year and let the opportunity slip by them. They can’t afford to let them happen again.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction and Picks

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction: Maple Leafs 4, Lightning 2

Lightning vs Maple Leafs: Maple Leafs ML (Best Value: -164 at BetOnline) & Over 5.5 Goals (Best Value: -138 at BetOnline)

The Maple Leafs have been fantastic at home and got the better of the Lightning during the regular season. Tampa Bay is also struggling on the road and with how well Toronto’s forwards and goaltenders have been playing, I don’t see that trend ending in Game 1. The Lightning will press at times, but the Maple Leafs are built to withstand any storm.

I also recommend taking the over on the 5.5-goal total. The over is 7-2 in the last nine Lightning vs Maple Leafs matchups, averaging 6.78 total goals during that span. On top of that, the over is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last five games, as well as 7-1 in Toronto’s last eight on a Tuesday.

At the end of the day, a 5.5-goal total is somewhat disrespectful to two offensively gifted teams. Backing the over here is a no-brainer.

Other Lightning vs Maple Leafs Betting Resources

• Lightning vs Maple Leafs Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats

Other NHL Stories on Betting News (April 18)

• Stanley Cup Winner Odds and Best Bets