Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Prediction & Picks: Will Toronto Exorcise Posteason Demons?

The 2022-23 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are far from over, continuing with more action on Thursday, April 27. The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs are set for Game 5 of their series returns to Scotiabank Arena. Toronto holds the 3-1 lead and has a chance to advance to the next round, leaving time to tell if this is the finale of the Lightning vs Maple Leafs series or not.

You ready for Game 5, Leafs Nation?!?@jackydoorey & @BeckyKellar check in with the latest from practice pic.twitter.com/2F5mTjjazt

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 26, 2023

The Lightning couldn’t handle the pressure in Game 4, blowing a 4-1 lead as they allowed the Maple Leafs to score three unanswered third-period goals. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, there was no coming back. Alexander Kerfoot potted his first goal of the postseason at 4:14 into overtime to give Toronto the 5-4 victory.

Can Toronto advance to the next round for the first time in nearly 20 years? Or will Tampa Bay successfully force at least one more contest?

Here’s a look at everything you know heading into Game 5 of the Lightning vs Maple Leafs series, from the latest betting odds to a prediction with the best betting recommendation.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Game 5 Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR leads 3-1)
• Venue & Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, Ontario)
• Date: Thursday, April 27, 2023
• Game Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Time
• Lightning vs Maple Leafs TV Info: TBS, CBC, SportsNet, BSSUN

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Wednesday, April 26 at 10:10 p.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 (-192)
• Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+158)

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 Goals (-110)
• Under 6.5 Goals (-110)

Moneyline

• Tampa Bay Lightning +130
• Toronto Maple Leafs -156

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay is 2-8 straight up in its last 10 games against the Atlantic Division.
• Toronto is 25-15 straight up in its last 40 games as the favorite against the Eastern Conference.
• The total has hit the over in each of Tampa Bay’s last five road games.
• The total has hit the over in four of Toronto’s last five home games.
• The total has hit the over in four of the last six Tampa Bay-Toronto matchups at Scotiabank Arena.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Preview

The Lightning haven’t looked like the same team that eliminated the Maple Leafs from last year’s playoffs. Between suspect goaltending performances and the inability to close out games, there isn’t much to like about Jon Cooper’s team this spring.

Blowing a 4-1 lead even against a team as talented as the Maple Leafs is inexcusable. It didn’t help that Toronto’s third-period goals all came at even strength.

If the Lightning want to reverse their fortunes, they have to shut down — or at least slow down — the Maple Leafs’ top players. Mitchell Marner has already racked up a team-leading 10 points. Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Ryan O’Reilly have each amassed seven points. John Tavares even has three goals.

While the Lightning defensemen must do what they can to slow down the Maple Leafs’ top lines, Andrei Vasilevskiy must also be better in between the pipes. The Russian netminder hasn’t resembled a former Vezina Trophy winner, playing to a 4.33 goals-against average and .856 save percentage thus far.

A bounce-back performance at Scotiabank Arena might be easier said than done, though. Vasilevskiy has lost four of his previous seven trips to Toronto, tallying a 3.59 GAA and .890 SV% over that span. That level of play won’t be good enough against the Maple Leafs, who are averaging 4.75 goals per game this series.

After recording a 9.00 GAA and .793 SV% in Game 1, Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov has been playing better. He’s racked up a 2.67 GAA and .902 SV% during Toronto’s three-game winning streak. Furthermore, he’s 5-2-2 with a 2.37 GAA and .915 SV% in his last seven starts at Scotiabank Arena.

It’s also tough trusting the Lightning when they struggle as underdogs. They’re 5-14 straight up when the odds aren’t in their favor. On the flip side, the Maple Leafs are 14-8 straight up as the favorite against the Eastern Conference.

Something also working in the Maple Leafs’ favor is the fact that they’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Lightning have failed to cover the spread in all but one of their past five road contests.

At the end of the day, the Lightning aren’t playing like the team that went to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. If they’re going to move one step closer to evening things, they’ll need their best performance of the series.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Prediction and Picks

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction: Maple Leafs 5, Lightning 3

Lightning vs Maple Leafs: Maple Leafs ML (Best Value: -156 at BetOnline) & Morgan Rielly — Over 0.5 Assists (Best Value: -128 at BetOnline)

Although the Lightning are capable of more than they’ve shown, it’s time for the Maple Leafs to move on. Sheldon Keefe’s team has already proven that a three-goal deficit can’t hold it down. The momentum from that comeback victory mixed with a rowdy Toronto crowd will be too much for Tampa Bay to handle. The Maple Leafs’ top players will keep doing what they do as they advance to the next round.

One bet that I recommend making is for Morgan Rielly to finish with more than 0.5 assists. Rielly has been phenomenal in this Lightning vs Maple Leafs series, piling up four assists in the last three games.

He now returns to Scotiabank Arena, where he has six assists in as many home games. With Toronto’s attack showing no signs of slowing down, there’s a good chance that Rielly finishes with at least one helper tonight.

Other Lightning vs Maple Leafs Betting Resources

• Lighting vs Maple Leafs Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats

Other NHL Stories on Betting News (April 27)

• Stanley Cup Winner Odds and Best Bets

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