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Maple Leafs vs Coyotes Prediction & Picks (NHL Picks 2/21)
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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A homecoming for two of Toronto’s top players happens tonight as the Toronto Maple Leafs (30-16-8) take on the Arizona Coyotes (23-28-4) at Mullet Arena at 10 PM ET.
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All eyes will be on Auston Matthews, who is looking for his 50th goal of the season in the city that raised him. Growing up, Matthews was a Coyotes fan, and he has the chance to be the fastest player to score 50 goals in the 21st century. Matthews has scored 5 goals against Arizona in his career; and enters tonight with 8 goals in his last 5 games, including two hat-tricks.
Get up, it's game day ?
? Toronto Maple Leafs
? 8:00 pm MST
? Mullett Arena
? DirecTV 61, Cox 95, @fubo & Coyotes Central
? Channel Guide: https://t.co/5e4ZAgi3yC
? 98.7 FM Arizona Sports
?️ https://t.co/XHasAO0xeE pic.twitter.com/fu8Iq826Ts— Arizona Coyotes (@ArizonaCoyotes) February 21, 2024
Matthew Knies, another Arizona-born Maple Leaf, plays in his home state for the first time in his career. He is expected to have close to 60 friends and family in the crowd. Teammates are always willing to go the extra mile to play well for a special night and tonight should be no different.
Tonight is the last game of Morgan Rielly’s 5-game suspension, and the Leafs are 4-0-0 in his absence. The Coyotes do not have a win in the month of February and have not won since January 22nd. If you know anything about the Leafs, you know this is a recipe for a loss.
Leafs vs Coyotes NHL Betting Tonight (2/21)
Leafs vs Coyotes Matchup Information
Matchup: Arizona Coyotes (23-28-4, 15-13-0 Home) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (30-16-8, 15-6-6 Away)
Venue & Location: Mullet Arena (Tempe, AZ)
Date: Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024
Game Time: 10 p.m. Eastern Time
How to Watch Leafs vs Coyotes: SN, DirecTV, FUBO
Leafs vs Coyotes NHL Betting Odds
Leafs vs Coyotes odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday Feb. 21 at 11:38 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
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Leafs vs Coyotes Puck Line
Arizona Coyotes +1.5 (-155)
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135)
Leafs vs Coyotes Over/Under
Over 6.5 Goals (-122)
Under 6.5 Goals (+106)
Leafs vs Coyotes Moneyline
Arizona Coyotes (+158)
Toronto Maple Leafs (-178)
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NHL Best Bets & Picks Today
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Leafs vs Coyotes Betting Trends
Arizona has allowed 3+ goals in all of their last 10 games
Toronto has scored 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 games
The Total hit OVER 6.5 in 4 of last 10 Leafs games and 6 of last 10 Coyotes games
The Coyotes have covered the +1.5 spread in 3 of 10 games.
Auston Matthews has scored 1+ goal in 8 of the last 10 games.
Leafs vs Coyotes Prediction & Pick (2/20): Can the Coyotes Break Their Month-Long Streak?
Leafs vs Coyotes, Prediction: Auston Matthews Scores 50th in Losing Effort
Stay with me on the logic here. The Arizona Coyotes haven’t won a game in a calendar month. The Leafs have managed to go 4-0 without All-Star, Morgan Rielly and have a game in Vegas tomorrow. I’m not suggesting they are going to look past the Coyotes, but it would not be the first time the Leafs lost a game they had no business losing.
For what it’s worth, my model has the Leafs at 86% to win because mathematically, they are the better team in every single facet. On paper, on the ice, you name it. Which is exactly why this is a recipe for a loss. This team lost to a Zamboni driver in goal, has lost to countless goalies making NHL debuts and teams well below them in the standings. For whatever reason, this team has a habit of playing down to their opponent and relying on luck to get wins in games they should win easily.
The Leafs have played well recently and Arizona has been the league’s worst team of late. The Coyotes have given up 3 or more goals in every single one of their last 10 games. The Leafs have been extremely effective on the power play lately, an area where Arizona has been above average this season. Expect this game to be loose, fast paced and have high shot totals. Regardless of result, this is a must-watch game to see if Auston Matthews can be the first player to hit 50 goals this season.
Player Props to Watch in Leafs vs Coyotes (2/21)
Auston Matthews Over 4.5 SOG (-114) BOVADA
Matthews has one of the best matchups on the slate tonight against Arizona. Setting aside that he will want to score his 50th at home and should be considered a shot ladder candidate, Arizona ranks 3rd last in shots allowed to centers and 6th worst in shots allowed. Matthews has a matchup rating of 87/100 according to my model. When combined with the storyline angle, this is a good spot for the NHL’s best goal scorer.
Matthew Knies Point (+120) BOVADA
Another hometown boy who’s playing his first game in his home state. Knies has looked rejuvenated since the All Star break and has 5 points in his last 5 games. On a line with Matthews and Marner, Knies could be the beneficiary of an assist on a Matthews goal or scoring on a rebound. He attacks the middle of the ice well and will be looking to impress his family while potentially helping a teammate hit a milestone. At plus-money, this has wuite a bit of value given his recent run of play.
Mitch Marner Assist (-186) BOVADA
Marner is one of the best set-up men in the NHL. On a night where the Batman to his Robin will be looking to score, Marner is 83% to record an assist by the model. He has 1+ assist in 7 of 10 and 4 of 5. The puck goes through him on the powerplay and Toronto’s powerplay has been red hot with 5 goals in the last 3 games.
Auston Matthews Goal (-135) BOVADA
This one is quite simple. He’s looking to hit the 50-goal mark in his hometown. His teammates will be looking for him and he won’t be passing up any shots. Given Arizona’s propensity to give up 3 or more goals, it is hard not to take Matthews here. The model gives him a 76% chance to score and nearly 20 points of value on his line. At -135, with how hot he’s been, you take it and hope he hits 50 in in front of family and friends
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Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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