Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction & Picks (April 11): Toronto Sends a Message at Amalie Arena

NHL enthusiasts will be given a first-round playoff matchup preview when the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning collide on Tuesday, April 11. While the Atlantic Division rivals are guaranteed to face each other in Round 1 regardless of who wins tonight, a win could give the victor some much-needed momentum ahead of the Maple Leafs vs Lightning playoff series.

Leafs lock up home ice against the Lightning. pic.twitter.com/wNZCEaFOOT

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) April 7, 2023

The Maple Leafs were in action last night, picking up a 2-1 overtime victory against the Florida Panthers. Team captain John Tavares scored at 4:38 into the extra frame to seal the deal for Toronto as goaltender Ilya Samsonov turned aside 45 of the 46 shots he faced for the win.

Meanwhile, the Lightning sure could use a boost after losing each of their previous three games. They most recently fell 7-4 to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night, meaning Tampa Bay has now allowed 19 total goals over its three-game skid.

For those curious about Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting options, Betting Newshas you covered. Here’s a peek at the matchup’s latest odds (via BetOnline Sportsbook), as well as a prediction and the best bets for tonight’s showdown.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs (48-21-11, 21-13-5 Away) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (45-29-6, 27-7-5 Home)
• Venue & Location: Amalie Arena (Tampa, Florida)
• Date: Tuesday, April 11, 2023
• Game Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Time
• Maple Leafs vs Lightning TV Info: ESPN

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, April 11 at 8:44 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-194)
• Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+160)

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 Goals (-110)
• Under 6.5 Goals (-110)

Moneyline

• Toronto Maple Leafs +122
• Tampa Bay Lightning -146

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Betting Trends

• Toronto is 9-2 straight up in its last 11 games on a Tuesday.
• Tampa Bay is 1-6 straight up in its last seven games against the Atlantic Division.
• The total has hit the under in four of Toronto’s last five road games.
• The total has hit the over in 11 of Tampa Bay’s last 13 games played in April.
• The total has hit the over in each of the last seven Toronto-Tampa Bay matchups at Amalie Arena.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game Preview

With the 2022-23 NHL campaign winding down, this is the third and final Maple Leafs vs Lightning matchup of the regular season. The division rivals have been evenly matched thus far, so it’ll be interesting to see who wins the rubber match tonight.

In a back-and-forth showdown, the Lightning picked up a 4-3 overtime victory over the Maple Leafs when they first collided on Dec. 3 at Amalie Arena. It didn’t take long for Toronto to exact revenge, though, getting the better of Tampa Bay with a 4-1 effort at Scotiabank Arena just 17 days later.

Now, the Maple Leafs hope to take advantage of the Lightning, who have been getting horrific defensive play and goaltending recently. Nineteen goals allowed over three games is just mind-boggling for a team of Tampa Bay’s caliber.

Daily Faceoff points to Andrei Vasilevskiy being the Lightning’s starting goaltender tonight. The Russian netminder surrendered six goals on 37 shots to the New York Rangers in his last outing, so he must be better. Having said that, he did record two shutouts in the three games prior to that poor showing.

Vasilevskiy has also been solid in his recent outings against the Maple Leafs. It’s a small sample size, but he’s gone 3-1-0 with a 2.10 goals-against average and .936 save percentage over the last four times he’s faced Toronto.

Speaking of goaltending, Samsonov has been giving the Maple Leafs some great play between the pipes. Toronto has notched points in eight of the 26-year-old’s last 10 starts. Furthermore, his own numbers are impressive over that span, playing to a 2.12 GAA and .930 SV% with one shutout victory.

Another area that’s been strong for the Maple Leafs is their penalty kill. The unit has killed off all 15 of the penalties it’s had to deal with over the last six games. While the Lightning own the No. 3 power play in the NHL (25.9%), it only has a 21.4% success rate over their last six home games.

The Maple Leafs are also getting strong play from their top players. The trio of Tavares, Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner have combined for 17 goals and 33 points over their team’s last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Lightning can’t say the same during their skid. Over the last three games, Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point own a combined minus-21 plus/minus rating.

At the end of the day, whichever side gets better goaltending and play from their superstars should emerge the victor.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction and Picks

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction: Maple Leafs 5, Lightning 3

Maple Leafs vs Lightning: Maple Leafs ML (Best Value: +122 at BetOnline) & Auston Matthews Over 0.5 Goals (Best Value: +104 at BetOnline)

I see the Maple Leafs emerging victorious tonight. Is this game relatively meaningless? Yes, but a victory here would send a message to the Lightning. That sort of effort is needed to show that this year’s playoff series won’t be the same as last year. The Maple Leafs look like they’re for real this time and should be able to take advantage of the Lightning’s recent shortcomings.

I also recommend backing Auston Matthews scoring over 0.5 goals as another betting option. The dynamic scorer has found the back in six of his last 10 games, amassing eight total goals over that stretch — including three in his last four.

Considering how he also has four goals in his last three tilts with Tampa Bay, I see Matthews finding the twine again tonight.

Other Toronto vs Tampa Bay Betting Resources

• Maple Leafs vs Lightning Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats