Maple Leafs vs Sabres Prediction, Odds & Picks (Feb. 21): Expect Many Goals in Atlantic Division Showdown

The NHL has an exciting lineup scheduled for Tuesday, Feb. 21, including an Atlantic Division showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres. Toronto already blew Buffalo out 5-2 in their first meeting of the season back in November, leaving time to tell who’ll emerge the victor after the latest Maple Leafs vs Sabres clash.

It’s us and the Leafs tonight at KeyBank Center!

?: ESPN+
?: @WGR550
?: https://t.co/MOmGqRi00P#LetsGoBuffalo pic.twitter.com/W8UevX0cip

— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) February 21, 2023

The Maple Leafs enter tonight’s contest following Sunday’s 5-3 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks. Despite being tied 3-3 halfway through the third period, Toronto couldn’t prevail as goals from Cole Guttman and Max Domi sealed the Maple Leafs’ fate.

Meanwhile, the Sabres return home after going 2-1 on a California road trip. They picked up a 4-2 victory over the San Jose Sharks in their last out, highlighted by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopping 33 of the 35 shots he faced.

Tonight’s Maple Leafs vs Sabres collision also brings several betting opportunities to the table. Here’s a look at BetOnline Sportsbook’s latest odds for the game, as well as a prediction and the best bet to make, courtesy of Betting News.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs (34-15-8, 12-9-4 Away) vs. Buffalo Sabres (28-22-4, 11-14-2 Home)
• Venue & Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, New York)
• Date: Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2023
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
• Maple Leafs vs Sabres TV Info: ESPN+

Maple Leafs vs Sabres Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, Feb. 21 at 8:33 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140)
• Buffalo Sabres +1.5 (-172)

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 Goals (-138)
• Under 6.5 Goals (+112)

Moneyline

• Toronto Maple Leafs -178
• Buffalo Sabres +146

Maple Leafs vs Sabres Betting Trends

• Toronto is 1-4 straight up in its last five road games.
• Buffalo is 2-6 straight up in its last eight home games.
• The total has hit the over in four of Toronto’s last six games.
• The total has hit the under in five of Buffalo’s last six games against the Eastern Conference.
• The total has hit the over in 14 of the last 19 Toronto-Buffalo matchups.

Maple Leafs Aim to End Road Woes

Playing on the road has been a struggle for the Maple Leafs as of late. Despite all of the talent on their roster, they’ve tasted defeat in four of their last five away contests.

One of the reasons why the Maple Leafs have had those road struggles is that they can’t keep the puck out of their own net. Three of the above four road losses saw Toronto allowing at least four goals, which includes surrendering five to the Blackhawks — one of the worst teams in the league — in their last outing.

If the Maple Leafs are going to turn things around tonight, Ilya Samsonov needs to be better than he has been on the road. The Russian netminder is 2-5-1 in his last eight away contests, recording a 3.27 goals-against average and .889 save percentage with one shutout.

It’d also help if Toronto’s top players stepped up. While Mitchell Marner and John Tavares have six and five points, respectively, in their club’s last five road outings, the other players could afford to step up.

For example, although Morgan Rielly has three assists in his last five road games, he has a minus-6 plus/minus rating over that stretch. William Nylander has gone eight straight away games without a goal while being a minus-8 during that time.

It doesn’t help that the Maple Leafs have also lost three of their last four visits to KeyBank Center. Considering how they were outscored 20-13 in those contests, it’s clear that both Toronto’s offense and defense must be better tonight.

Can Sabres Reverse Fortunes at Home?

While the Maple Leafs have had a tough time putting wins together on the road, winning hasn’t exactly been easy for the Sabres in their own backyard.

The Sabres have lost six of their last eight home games, allowing a whopping 12 goals over the last two games alone. In fact, they’ve allowed four-plus goals in all but two of those contests — the only two matchups over that span that they actually won.

On top of that, the Sabres have allowed an average of 4.4 goals over their last five games — regardless if it was a home or away scenario.

In other words, Luukkonen will likely need to stand on his head tonight if the Sabres want to beat the Maple Leafs. While he performed well against the Sharks, it’s worth noting that he’s lost four of his last six starts at home, mostly due to a 3.71 GAA and .887 SV% in those games.

It also doesn’t help that the Sabres’ power play has been abysmal at home. The unit is only 3-of-25 (12.0%) over the last eight home games. Much to Buffalo’s dismay, Toronto has one of the better penalty kills in the NHL, entering tonight’s game with an 81.0% success rate (No. 11).

The Sabres do have recent home success against the Maple Leafs, but only time will tell if they can recreate that history.

Maple Leafs vs Sabres Prediction and Picks

Maple Leafs vs Sabres Prediction: Maple Leafs 5, Sabres 3

Maple Leafs vs Sabres Picks: Maple Leafs ML (Best Value: -178 at BetOnline) & Over 6.5 Goals (Best Value: -138 at BetOnline)

At the end of the day, there are too many things working against the Sabres to trust them. The Maple Leafs have had their struggles too, but they’re hungry for a win and now get to take on a Buffalo team that can’t keep the puck out of its own net. If Toronto’s top players can get a few lucky bounces, the floodgates will open.

In addition to backing a Toronto victory, I recommend taking the over on the 6.5-goal total. After all, the over has been hit in 14 of the last 19 Maple Leafs vs Sabres matchups. Considering six of their last seven meetings have gone over 6.5 goals, I’m anticipating another high-scoring affair tonight.

Other Toronto vs Buffalo Betting Resources

• Maple Leafs vs Sabres Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats