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Maple Leafs vs Bruins Prediction & Picks (3/7): Rematch of Monday’s Atlantic Division Rivalry
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
nhl
A rematch of Monday’s Atlantic showdown between the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs goes down in Boston at 7 pm ET.
The Eras finale.
? @tdgarden
?️ 7 p.m. ET
? @MapleLeafs
? @NESN
? @985TheSportsHub pic.twitter.com/o4w6mEyuI3— Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) March 7, 2024
Boston beat Toronto handily on Monday night and now get theToronto Maple Leafs off a 2-1 OT Win against Buffalo last night. Travel on a back-to-back is tough, it is especially tough when the team is waiting at homre, while the other gets in around 3am. Jospeh Woll will get the start for Toronto, his third game since returning from an ankle injury that saw him miss nearly three months.
There was a fury of trades yesterday in the NHL, but none involving the two teams in action. However, both Toronto and Boston are expected to be active and therefore, we may see players held out of the lineup for “trade-related reasons.” While it is unlikely that a contender would hold out a player, if a trade is close, teams are wise to protect assets. Be mindful of that if you are taking bets prior to a few minutes before puck drop.
The Leafs have earned their way back into the contention conversation having been excellent since the All-Star break and winning 8 of 10 games. The Bruins are loser point merchants of late, losing 5 of their last 10 in overtime. A small sprinkle on the Bruins to go to OT is a shrewd bet this season given they have gone to overtime in about 30% of their games.
Tonight’s matchup is response game for the Leafs are likely to see the Bruins in the first round of the playoffs and were handily beaten on Monday in Toronto. While the Leafs are on a back-to-back, their response to Monday’s performance against their archrivals will be keenly watched by many to determine if the players are able to bounce back stronger.
Leafs vs Bruins NHL Betting Tonight (3/7)
Leafs vs Bruins Matchup Information
Matchup: Boston Bruins (36-13-15, 18-7-7 Home) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (38-18-8, 18-6-6 Away)
Venue & Location: TD Garden (Boston, MA)
Date: Thursday, Mar. 7, 2024
Game Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Time
How to Watch Leafs vs Bruins: TSN4, NESN
Leafs vs Bruins NHL Betting Odds
Leafs vs Bruins odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of March 7th at 10:00 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
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Leafs vs Bruins Puck Line
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-210)
Boston Bruins -1.5 (+180)
Leafs vs Bruins Over/Under
Over 6 Goals (-108)
Under 6 Goals (-108)
Leafs vs Bruins Moneyline
Toronto Maple Leafs (+125)
Boston Bruins (-140)
NHL Best Bets & Picks Today
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Leafs vs Bruins Betting Trends
Toronto has scored 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games, Boston has allowed 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 games.
Boston struggles to cover the -1.5 spread, covering once in their last 10, while Toronto has covered +1.5 in 8 of their last 10. Boston beat Toronto 4-1 on Monday.
The Total hit UNDER 6.5 in 5 of last 10 Leafs games and 7 of last 10 Bruins games. Their previous matchup on Monday produced 5 goals.
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and David Pastrnak have averaged more than a point per game in the last 10 meetings between the two teams.
Leafs vs Bruins Prediction & Pick (3/7): Boston Bruins Outmatch Toronto in Back to Back Games
Leafs vs Bruins Prediction: Shooters Shoot as Rested Bruins Outlast Leafs For Second Win in Four Nights
The Bruins are struggling to find consistency of late and are 4-2-5 in their last 10. They are the beneficiaries of 5 points accrued in overtime/shootout losses, including Tuesday night against Edmonton where they coughed up the lead with less than a minute to play and lost in overtime. The Bruins have struggled to score recently and are looking to rectify that through trade. Neither team has gone over the total in their last two games and both teams are getting great performances from their goaltenders.
The Bruins lead the season series 3-0, with two of those wins in one-goal contests. The total has gone under in 2 of the three matchups, with the outlier producing 7 goals. 2 of the three meetings have required overtime, and at +360, there is value on the game to go to OT. Both teams understand the importance of tonight’s game heading into trade deadline and the psyche of losing all 4 games to Boston heading into a likely playoff series would not feel great for the Leafs. Expect a tight checking matchup requiring extraordinary skill or a lucky bounce to break through.
Player Props to Watch in Leafs vs Bruins (3/7)
David Pastrnak Over 4.5 Shots (-110) BOVADA
Pastrnak registered 7 shots on goal in the game on Monday and has averaged exactly 4.5 shots in his last 10 games vs. Toronto. He loves playing the Leafs and seems to be part of the headlines after each matchup. He’s gone over his line in 4 of 5 and 7 of his last 10. IN three meetings this season, Pastrnak has 3, 10 and 7 shots. He’s more likely to be a ladder candidate than to go under the number. He’s projected for 5.63 shots tonight, easily clearing the 4.5 line.
Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots (-152) BOVADA
Matthews has averaged 4.7 shots against the Bruins in the last 10 meetings and is coming off a 4-shot performance, including the overtime winner against Buffalo on Wednesday night. He consistently elevates his game against the Bruins and given their league average ability to prevent shots, is a strong candidate to go over the number tonight. The Bruins’ top line has struggled to shut down the league’s top players at times this season and Matthews had 5 against the Bruins on Monday
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Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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