Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Prediction & Picks – Oct. 12

The Toronto Maple Leafs open the season on the road in Montreal as they take on their biggest rival, the Montreal Canadiens.

Can the Leafs turn the Page?

The Leafs come into this season ready to put their disappointing first-round exit behind them as they look to have yet another strong regular season campaign.

Auston Matthews is primed for another goal-scoring masterclass, as he netted 60 last season on his way to winning the Hart Trophy for the NHL’s Most Valuable Player.

While I don’t know if he can net 60 again, he will certainly be a constant threat and at times, unstoppable. Paired with William Nylander and Mitch Marner on the top line for the Leafs makes their offense a constant threat yet again.

The addition of Matt Murray from the Senators in the offseason will be the X factor. If Murray and backup Ilya Samsonov can put together a strong season and be solid between the pipes, the Leafs can definitely make some noise come playoff time.

Leafs’ new goaltending tandem in the preseason:

Matt Murray: 3-0-0, 64/66, .970 SV%
Ilya Samsonov: 1-1-0, 72/78, .917 SV%

Better to build off a strong preseason than try to reset after a poor one.

— Nick Richard (@_NickRichard) October 9, 2022

Can St. Louis continue to improve the Canadiens?

The Canadiens, on the other hand, are looking to build on what was a positive end to their season last year. Martin St. Louis took over mid-season after the Habs looked awful to start the year. Since St. Louis took over, the Habs were a different team, going 14-19-4, looking competitive and like the beginnings of a great hockey team.

St. Louis was rewarded in the offseason, when the Canadiens rightly made him the Head Coach for the next three seasons. This feels like the right move to take this team in a positive direction and that starts now.

The biggest beneficiary to St. Louis staying around is Cole Caulfield. Caulfield is one of the more exciting young players in the NHL and when St. Louis was appointed last season, Caulfield’s game went to the next level.

@colecaufield is real good today and would of been real good 20-30 years ago. The special players could of played in any era-they are smarter and more passionate than most, but more importantly they don’t waste time listening to the meaningless noise. #tooSmall!?? https://t.co/QWXVy4M1cr

— Martin St.Louis (@mstlouis_26) June 25, 2021

There seems to be a special bond forming between the Hall of Famer now Coach and the young star. The end to Caulfield’s season last year was the proof in the pudding, as he looked free, fast, and couldn’t stop scoring goals.

From a Canadiens perspective, Long may that continue.

ODDS

AVAILABLE AT FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

SPREAD

• MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (-106)
• CANADIENS +1.5 (-114)

MONEYLINE

• MAPLE LEAFS (-260)
• CANADIENS (+210)

TOTAL

• OVER 6.5 (-135)
• UNDER 6.5 (+110)

PREDICTION

First games of the season are always tough to get a read on, especially from a sides perspective. However, given the recent history between these two teams and the fact that the Canadiens are a thorn in the Leafs side, I love the Habs in this one to keep it close at home.

In the 4 matchups last season, they either won outright or covered the puck line in all 4. If you want to get nice plus money on the moneyline, I like that for the value but I am going to take the safety net of the extra goal and take the puck line.

BEST BET

CANADIENS +1.5 (-114) FANDUEL

PROPS

Cole Caulfield o2.5 SOGs (-130)

As I mentioned before, Caulfield benefited the most from St. Louis taking over the reigns last season. He looked faster, freer, and was scoring goals for fun. He is one of the most exciting young players in the game right now and I expect him to take another leap forward this year.

That starts tonight. He hit his SOGs in two of four against the Leafs last year and scored in three of four.

At home, in a season opener, against their biggest rivals, go with Caulfield to get three shots on net.

Mitch Marner o2.5 SOGs (-132)

I’ll get to Matthews in a minute but this is my favorite Leafs prop.

Marner gets forgotten sometimes with how good Matthews is but Marner is a stud in his own right so this bet doesn’t ned much explaining. But the numbers here are why I am taking this and I can’t bet it fast enough.

He crushed his SOGs in every game last year against the Habs, going over 4 every time. I might even ladder his shots but I will for sure be playing it straight at the low number of 2.5.

Love this play.

Auston Matthews o4.5 SOGs (+104)

I know it is chalky. I don’t really care. It’s the season opener and Auston Matthews will come out firing.

It’s a high number but it’s high for a reason. I also love the fact that it is plus money.

At times last season, it was -125 or higher for over 4.5. Give me the plus money on one of the most lethal shooters in the game.

Be on the lookout for all my SOG props all season as it is my favorite market to bet on and research. If you haven’t bet it before, welcome to the dark side. We’re gonna have some fun!

Follow me on Twitter @SweatpantJesus and @yourbettingnews as I post my props on there as well. Enjoy the game and best of luck! Peace and Love