Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

There’s a lot to love in this marquee matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning. These two teams have gotten to know each other very well through the playoffs, and although we are only 5 games into the season this game should feel like a postseason tilt. Let’s break down the game odds and some NHL player props to start your weekend off right.

TOR/TBL Best Bet: TOR/TBL o7 (+100) on BETDSI

Normally an over 7 goals can be a tough climb but there are some factors that support this total. Particularly the Tampa Bay Lightning goaltending mess. Both of these teams also have a ton of fire power. This game should be a race.

Tampa Bay are expected to start Jonas Johansson, with their elite starter Vasilevskiy out for several months. Johansson has a brutal 3.53 GAA and .894% save percentage over four games.

Because of this shaky goaltending the Lightning will have to amass buckets of goals to beat their rival the Maple Leafs. Out of Tampa’s five games this season, four of those games have had 7 or more goals. The Lightning have had 4+ goals in three of those games.

Toronto can put it in the back of the net as well. They had 13 goals in their first two games. They have only had a single goal in the last two games. This is a great chance for them to rack up goals against a weak goaltender.

The total goals over 7 is a great look in what should be a back and forth game. Next let’s look at some NHL player props to round out one of the best games of the day.

NHL Player Prop: Mitch Marner o2.5 SOG (-105) on Bovada

Marner must not be able to live down the amount of times Tampa beat the Maple Leafs in the playoffs, because he always shows up when he plays the Bolts.

Including the playoffs, he hit his SOG line in 6 of 8 games last season. He exceeded this line in ever single regular season game and has 3+ shots on goal in 8 of his last 12 regular season games against the Lightning.

Marner is typically known as a playmaker, but he throws pucks on net against the Lightning. Last season he averaged 7.1 shot attempts when playing Tampa Bay. That means he could miss four of those shots and still hit his line.

It’s surprising to see Marner being played for his SOG, but it is one of the best NHL player props to bet on today.

Mitch Marner put the Leafs up early with a power-play goal!

(?: @espn) pic.twitter.com/YyOsTKxM65

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) April 20, 2023

NHL Player Prop: Victor Hedman Point (-106) on Bovada

Victor Hedman is looking like a Norris trophy winner caliber defenseman again. He has started this season very strong with 5 points in 5 games. He is the quaterback of a lethal Tampa Bay powerplay and as mentioned before, the Lightning will need to race to the finish line with weak goaltending.

It is very surprising seeing this line near even money. Just two seasons ago he put up 85 points. In the last eight seasons he had 50+ points five times, including 49 points just last season.

Although he only has 23 points in his 44 career games against the Maple Leafs, many of the duds came early in his career. In fact he only had 1 point in his first 10 meetings with Toronto.

The value here is hard to pass up and is one NHL player props that stands out in a massive slate.

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