NHL Playoff Preview: Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks

An All-Canadian matchup for the second round of the NHL playoffs is awesome! As a Canadian, pretty thrilled with the guarantee of a Canadian team in the Final Four, that’s always fun. The Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks face-off in the second round and without Vezina runner-up Thatcher Demko, the Canucks are in tougher than they already were. The Canucks finished ahead of the Oilers thanks to a brutal start by the Edmonton. Since a coaching change in November, the Oilers have been the better team with the better players, but less depth. How does this play out in the series? Let’s dive in!

Regular Season Performance

Identical at 5v5 in terms of offensive results, with Vancouver’s only edge coming defensively. This will be key in the series, as the Canucks must continue to their defensive stronghold to protect their young goaltender and keep the Oilers nuclear weapons at bay. That’s asking a lot considering the Oilers just made mincemeat out of two of the best defensive centers in the NHL in Anze Kopitar and Philipp Danualt. If they couldn’t do it, it is hard to fathom any of the Canucks (or anyone else for that matter) being able to lock them down. Edmonton has a distinct advantage as it pertains to controlling 5v5 play. The offensive results may be the same, but Edmonton generates far more chances, more dangerous chances and has the finishing quality in McDavid, Hyman and Draisaitl to make good on those chances. Pettersson is clearly battling an injury and was a major part of the Canucks’ regular season success. If he is unable to be the reliable play driver, Vancouver’s forward depth loses its advantage.

The X-factor in this series is going to be the special teams. Edmonton was perfect on the penalty kill in the first round and scored 9 powerplay goals on 20 opportunities. Combined, their special teams was a whopping 145%. The Canucks were 105% in the first round. For context, teams aim for a combined percentage of 100%-105%. It was the difference maker in the first round for the Oilers. The Canucks penalty kill was 90% in their first round matchup and will need to remain that way if they want to stay in the series. Their 79% success rate in the regular season is not going to cut it against the Oilers in this series. The best way to do this, don’t take penalties. That’s a tough ask given everyone outside of Quinn Hughes is not the most fleet afoot on the Canucks blue line. Discipline will be paramount, and when inevitable penalties are called, their penalty kill will need to win battles, block shots and get stellar goaltending. Without that, they are in major trouble.

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Key Players and Matchup

Let’s start with the key matchup. Connor McDavid vs. Quinn Hughes. The Norris trophy nominee will have his hands full in round 2 and was clearly banged up in the first round. Hughes is the only skater with a puncher’s chance of keeping McDavid at bay. McDavid blows by anyone he wants in the NHL, and Hughes is one of the only defencemen capable of gapping up and defending with effectiveness. Even if Hughes doesn’t drive offence, keeping McDavid at bay is the primary assignment. Averaging 2.2 points per game in the first round, McDavid ranks 3rd all-time in playoff points per game. No one has been able to shut him down. If the Canucks want a chance to win the series, Quinn Hughes is going to need an MVP-level performance, which probably means keeping McDavid to a singular point per game.

Two players who will likely be evaluated against each other are Leon Draisaitl and Elias Pettersson. Draisaitl averaged two points per game in the first round and averages better than 1.6 points per game over his career in the playoffs. Pettersson is clearly playing at less than 100% and it appears to be impacting his ability to shoot the puck. With three points in six games, Pettersson struggled against the Predators. Both players are key drivers for their teams and Pettersson may not put up the point totals that Draisaitl does, but his line cannot get dominated at 5on5. He needs to win the 5on5 matchup or be on par. If Pettersson can match Draisaitl at 5on5, that will go a long way to keeping the Canucks in the series.

Other key players include Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard, JT Miller and Brock Boeser. Those players have a chance to be real difference makers if their play from the regular season and first round carry over to this matchup. Miller and Boeser were excellent against the Predators. They have earned the trust of their coach and will be depended upon to produce offence in their matchups. Frankly, it is highly likely that we’re talking about a Predators/Oilers matchup today if Boeser doesn’t have the first round that he did, scoring critical goals in multiple games. Hyman and Bouchard had incredible seasons for the Oilers and Hyman in particular, will be key to getting in the kitchen of the Canucks goaltenders. Silovs didn’t have to fight through traffic in the first round the same way he is likely to be acquainted with Hyman, Kane and Perry in this one. Bouchard was in the Norris trophy conversation and is a key part of the Oilers offence from the blue line. All four of these players have the opportunity to be key difference makers for their teams in the series.

Personally, I’d bet on two of the best players on the planet. Take Leon Draisaitl to be the top point scorer in the series. With McDavid getting the Hughes matchup, Draisaitl has the chance to be the dominant force he’s capable of being.

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Who Wins the Series?

The Oilers. The earliest that Thatcher Demko is expected to return is Game 6 and that is a stretch. Based on the model, it is expected that the Oilers will be up 3-2 in the series and throwing a goaltender in an elimination game, with a powerplay clicking at nearly 50%, is a tall task. The Canucks struggled to create meaningful offence against the Predators, putting less than 22 shots on goal in 5 of 6 games. That is not going to cut it against a team that scored 4+goals in all but one game of their first round series. The Oilers averaged 4.5 goals per game against Los Angeles and while the Canucks are better defensively, unless Stuart Skinner creates to a .600 SV%, the Canucks will need to find a way to generate more scoring chances.

If you’re looking for a way to arbitrage the books, take the Canucks to win the series before Game 1 as an underdog at home. If they win, you can get the Oilers at plus-money. A win-win. From a longer term perspective, Oilers -1.5 in the series and Canucks in 7 are the best ways to find value from the book.