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NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs Bruins, Game 1 Preview: Is This Toronto’s Year?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
nhl
Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-220
5
-119o
+118
Boston Bruins Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+195
6
-117u
-132
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameHere we go! The best postseason in professional sports is back, note the distinction (March Madness still reigns supreme). Nevertheless, the quest for the 2024 Stanley Cup begins today as the Boston Bruins host the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 1 of this First Round of the NHL Playoffs.
The Bruins finished in 2nd in the Atlantic Division, just one spot behind the Florida Panthers. The Leafs won just one less game than Boston but still finished 7 points behind them in the standings, leading to our playoff matchup tonight!
The Bruins have not be able to get past the first round in the past two season, could this be the year they break through? On the other hand, the Maple Leafs were finally able to escape their first round curse, but then lost to the Panthers in 5 games the next series.
Something’s gotta give. Who’s it gonna be?
Let’s take a dive into this game and find our best bets.
Maple Leafs Travel to Boston for Game 1
Matchup Information – Leafs vs Bruins
- Venue & Location: TD Garden (Boston, MA)
- Date: Saturday, April 20th, 2024
- Puck Drop: 8:00pm Eastern
- Where to Watch: TBS
Betting Odds, courtesy of BetOnline
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Puck Line
- Maple Leafs +1.5 (-240)
- Bruins -1.5 (+200)
Money Line
- Maple Leafs (+114)
- Bruins (-128)
Total
- Over 5.5 (-122)
- Under 5.5 (+106)
Boston is Due to Lose Against Toronto, Right?
The Bruins took care of business against the Maple Leafs during the regular season. They won every single game, but the first two were in dramatic fashion. Back in early November, the Bruins won 3-2 on a shootout in Boston. A month later, they were six seconds away from beat the Leafs in Toronto, but low and behold, Mr. Auston Matthews tied up the game to force overtime. Once again withe time running out, Brad Marchand won the game for the Bruins with 8 seconds left until a second shootout between the squads.
The next two meetings didn’t come until early March, but they were just three days apart, and as I’ve already stated, the Bruins won both contests. A 4-1 win in Toronto started with the Bruins taking an early 2-0 lead and never looking back. A few days later in Boston, the Bruins won again by the exact same score, thanks to a three goal 2nd period.
Tonight, we are back in Boston, with two very talented squads looking to push for the Stanley Cup this season. The Leafs have gotta be due, right? Not only have they gotten skunked this season, but they have now lost 7 straight games against the Bruins. Toronto has not won a game against Boston since November 5th, 2022. Going even further, they haven’t won a game at TD Garden since March 29th, 2022.
Is now the time that they finally get some much needed revenge against Boston?
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Best Bets
Best Bet: Boston Bruins ML (-125) BetOnline
To be quite honest with you, it would not surprise me if the Maple Leafs win this series. However, this is a tough task for them to get it done on the road in Game 1.
What stands out to me between these teams is the goaltending. So let me break that down for you.
Both Jeremey Swayman, who is starting tonight, and Linus Ullmark both rank Top 10 in GA/G this year, both allowing under 2.6 goals per game. They also both rank Top 7 in SV%, saving over 91.5% of shots headed their way. As a team overall, the Bruins rank 5th in the NHL in Goals Against per Game, allowing just 2.7 to opponents.
Let’s take a look at the Maple Leafs goaltending, who have had issues all season long. Ilya Samsonov allowed 3.13 goals per game this season, ranking 38th amongst qualifying goaltenders. He saved exactly 89% of shots which is tied for 2nd to last amongst NHL goalies. The Maple Leafs have been carried by their offense all season long, but it is very tough to score against the Bruins.
While the Leafs rank 2nd in scoring as a squad, netting over 3.6 goals per game, the Bruins put up 3.21 of their own.
This isn’t the regular season, this is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Defense will certainly come into play tonight, and I trust the goaltending of the Bruins a hell of a lot more than I do the Maple Leafs. Give me the Bruins to make it 8 straight wins against Toronto.
NHL Player Prop Bets: Maple Leafs vs Bruins
Brad Marchand Over 0.5 Point (-136) BetOnline
Keeping it simple, paying some juice, and taking Big Bad, Brad Marchand to get a point. This guy comes alive in the postseason.
Last playoffs, as you can see, he had 10 points in 7 playoff games, including a 4 point game. He had points in 6/7 games, but failed to do anything in Game 7. That won’t be the case tonight.
Marchand has a point in 58% of games this year, and 61% of games at home. He sees an uptick in both time on the ice and shot attempts at home compared to on the road, and he loves playing against the Leafs. Marchand has a point in 8 of his L10 against Toronto, posting 10 total points in that stretch,
He has points in all four games against the Leafs this season, and had 2 in his last time they played, totaling 5 points against Toronto this year. Marchand has points in his L2 at TD Garden against the Maple Leafs, and in 4 of his L5 facing them at home.
The man comes alive in the playoffs. In 146 career playoff games, Marchand has 53 goals and 75 assists. He’s had double digit points in his last 6 Stanley Cup Playoffs, so I expect him to come alive tonight.
What About the Other NHL Playoff Games?
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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