Penguins vs Lightning Prediction, Odds & Picks (March 2): Can Pittsburgh Complete the Season Sweep?

Thursday, March 2’s NHL schedule features a massive Eastern Conference matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning. Pittsburgh won the two first matchups of the season in dominant fashion, outscoring Tampa Bay 13-5 over that stretch. Only time will tell if the third and final Penguins vs Lightning matchup of the 2022-23 season sees the same result.

Give it up for KUUUUUCH!!

He takes @TGHCares Player of the month honors for February. ?

➡️ https://t.co/Jl7rjj2CO8 pic.twitter.com/u0V7Ac7br8

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) March 1, 2023

The Penguins head into tonight’s showdown riding a three-game winning streak. They most recently tallied a 3-1 victory over the Nashville Predators on Tuesday as three different Pittsburgh players found the back of the net while Tristan Jarry stopped 24 of the 25 shots he faced for the win.

Meanwhile, the Lightning have had issues stringing together wins. They dropped to 2-3-2 in their last seven games with a 4-1 loss to the Florida Panthers earlier this week. Though Tampa Bay’s playoff spot is currently safe, it’s clear that a stronger effort is needed to stop things from getting worse.

Tonight’s Penguins vs Lightning showdown also brings some interesting betting options to the table. Here’s a look at BetOnline Sportsbook’s latest odds for the game, as well as a prediction and the best bet to make, courtesy of Betting News.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins (30-21-9, 14-12-5 Away) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (37-19-4, 22-5-3 Home)
• Venue & Location: Amalie Arena (Tampa, Florida)
• Date: Thursday, March 2, 2023
• Game Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Time
• Penguins vs Lightning TV Info: ESPN+

Penguins vs Lightning Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, March 2 at 9:04 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 (-170)
• Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+138)

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 Goals (-122)
• Under 6.5 Goals (+100)

Moneyline

• Pittsburgh Penguins +146
• Tampa Bay Lightning -178

Penguins vs Lightning Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh is 4-1 straight up in its last five games against Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay is 14-3 straight up in its last 17 home games.
• The total has hit the under in four of Pittsburgh’s last five road games.
• The total has hit the over in four of Tampa Bay’s last six games.
• The total has hit the over in 11 of the last 14 Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay games played at Amalie Arena.

Penguins Aim For Fourth Straight Win

The Penguins haven’t always been the shining example of consistency this season, but they’ve managed to turn things around as of late. Their three-game winning streak has helped them take over the Eastern Conference’s second Wild Card spot, meaning a win tonight is crucial to maintain that status.

Fortunately, the Penguins already have experience beating the Lightning this season. As mentioned before, Pittsburgh absolutely blew out Tampa Bay in the first two matchups, winning each contest by a four-goal margin.

Sidney Crosby dealt the most damage, tallying five points in those contests. I fully expect another big effort from the Penguins’ captain tonight. After all, Crosby has amassed 24 points (six goals, 18 assists) over his last 18 games.

Evgeni Malkin has also been on a tear lately, recording 18 points in his last 15 outings. He has a team-leading seven goals during that span, adding 11 assists along the way. On top of that, the veteran forward also has 13 points in his last seven outings against Tampa Bay.

Pittsburgh also needs a strong goaltending performance to keep Tampa Bay’s stars off the scoresheet. The good news is that Tristan Jarry has been phenomenal in away games lately, going 6-1-1 in his last nine road appearances with a 1.92 goals-against average, .937 save percentage and one shutout.

Something that’s also in the Pens’ favor is their recent success at Amalie Arena. After all, Pittsburgh has won each of the last two Penguins vs Lightning matchups in Tampa, outscoring the home team 11-3 on aggregate.

Lightning Struggling Recently

Though the Lightning haven’t been extremely dominant this season, their recent losing ways have left a bad taste in their fans’ mouths.

After all, this is the first time during the 2022-23 NHL campaign that the Lightning have lost five times in a seven-game stretch. While the skid’s first three losses each came by one-goal margins, Tampa Bay has lost its last two outings by at least three goals — including a 7-3 thumping at the hands of the Penguins.

A lack of goal-scoring has been one of the factors behind the Lightning’s struggles. While they average 3.52 goals per game this season (No. 5), that number has fallen to 3.14 G/PG over their last seven outings.

It doesn’t help that Tampa Bay hasn't been getting solid play between the pipes, either. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 2-2-1 with a 2.82 GAA, .911 SV% and a shutout in his last five starts and although that’s far from the worst, it’s also below his typical play.

Meanwhile, backup goaltender Brian Elliott hasn’t been any better, winning just one of his last five starts with a 3.34 GAA and .890 SV%. Considering how well the Penguins’ top players have been playing, neither Lightning goalie can afford to continue their recent trends.

And while the Lightning have been great on home ice this season (22-5-3), the fact that they’ve lost two straight home games at Amalie Arena shows that they’re in a vulnerable spot. If they want to turn things around, they can’t take the Penguins lightly.

Penguins vs Lightning Prediction and Picks

Penguins vs Lightning Prediction: Penguins 4, Lightning 3

Penguins vs Lightning Picks: Penguins +1.5 (Best Value: -170 at BetOnline) & Over 6.5 Goals (Best Value: -122 at BetOnline)

The Lightning’s recent poor play makes it clear that this is the Penguins’ game to lose. Pittsburgh’s best players are showing up, leading to momentum being on the road team’s side. While Tampa Bay is capable of turning things around, its lack of success against Pittsburgh this season has me doubting if that turnaround happens tonight.

In addition to a Pittsburgh upset, I recommend backing the over on the 6.5-goal total. Eleven of the last 14 Penguins vs Lightning’s showdowns have hit the over and they already averaged nine goals in their first two meetings of the season. With Pittsburgh looking to continue its streak and Tampa Bay hoping to turn things around, expect fireworks tonight.

Other Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay Betting Resources

• Penguins vs Lightning Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats