AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund UCL Prediction & Picks: Expect Little Scoring in Key Group F Fixture

The UEFA Champions League is back in action this week, as the next-to-last round of group stage fixtures will take place across today and tomorrow. One of this week’s most important matches will take place today at the San Siro, where AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund will meet in Group F action.

Entering Matchday Five, Group F is the most wide-open of the Champions League groups, as all four teams still have a chance to finish first.

UEFA Champions League Group F Standings

1. Borussia Dortmund – 7 points (3 GF-2 GA)
2. Paris Saint-Germain – 6 points (7 GF-6 GA)
3. AC Milan – 5 points (2 GF-4 GA)
4. Newcastle United – 4 points (4 GF-4 GA)

After picking up only a point from their first two matches, Dortmund moved into the driver’s seat by taking all six points from their two fixtures against Newcastle, while PSG are still in the top two for now despite a 2-1 loss in Milan three weeks ago.

These standings could look much, much different at the end of today, depending on how things go in Milan and in the PSG-Newcastle match at the Parc des Princes.

Dortmund and PSG could both ensure advancement with victories, but at the same time, the day could end with AC Milan on top of the group if they and Newcastle both pick up wins.

AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Moneyline

• AC Milan +110
• Borussia Dortmund +245
• Draw +255

Spread

• AC Milan -0, 0.5 (-125)
• Borussia Dortmund +0, 0.5 (+105)

Total Games Over/Under

• Over 2.5 Goals (-118)
• Under 2.5 Goals (-102)

AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Picks

Prediction: AC Milan to win

Picks: AC Milan ML (+110 at Bovada) & AC Milan/Borussia Dortmund under 2.5 goals (-102 at Bovada)

Following the final international break of the year, both Milan and Dortmund returned to action this past Saturday with domestic league victories.

The Rossoneri ended a four-match winless run in Serie A with a narrow 1-0 win over Fiorentina, as Theo Hernandez’s penalty in first-half stoppage time was enough to secure the three points.

A win is a win is a win, and it was a helpful win as well. In a showdown between Serie A’s top two teams, Juventus and Inter played out a 1-1 draw in Turin on Sunday. As a result, AC Milan (26), who currently sit third, are now six points behind Inter (32) and four behind Juve (30).

Things were a bit more active in the scoring department in Dortmund’s 4-2 home win over Borussia Monchengladbach. Five of the six goals came in the first half, with the visitors taking a 2-0 lead before Marcel Sabitzer, Niclas Fullkrug, and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens turned it around.

Deep into second-half stoppage time, substitute Donyell Malen wrapped up the win, which saw Dortmund return to the top four in the Bundesliga and end a three-match winless run in the league.

Can they take that scoring form into Milan and lock down top spot in Group F? When these two teams met in Germany last month, no one found the scoresheet in a goalless draw.

Based on Dortmund’s European results thus far, goals should again be hard to come by.

In the Bundesliga, there have been three or more goals in eight of their 12 matches to date this season, and they have recorded only three clean sheets.

But each of their four Champions League matches have gone under 2.5, and they have recorded three straight clean sheets since opening group stage play with a 2-0 loss in Paris.

UEFA Champions League Results for Borussia Dortmund

• November 7: won 2-0 vs Newcastle
• October 25: won 1-0 at Newcastle
• October 4: drew 0-0 vs AC Milan
• September 19: lost 2-0 at PSG

When you consider their domestic form, the competition they are facing in Group F, and that no other current group leader has scored fewer than seven goals, Dortmund’s place atop the group is rather impressive.

AC Milan’s clean sheet against Fiorentina ended a run of six games without one, and another one could come in handy tonight. Can they find the goal(s) they need for the win, however?

They did against Fiorentina, and after failing to score in their first three Champions League matches, they found their scoring boots at the right time to overturn an early deficit against PSG last time out and inject some life into their hopes of qualification and perhaps even a group win.

UEFA Champions League Results for AC Milan

• November 7: won 2-1 vs PSG
• October 25: lost 3-0 at PSG
• October 4: drew 0-0 at Dortmund
• September 19: drew 0-0 vs Newcastle

If you’re looking for goals, this is unlikely to be the match for you. But I do think AC Milan will be able to find the goal that they need to pick up three valuable points, which could see them head into the final round of fixtures atop Group F.

Where to Bet on the UEFA Champions League

There are many sports betting sites where you can place soccer bets on competitions like the UEFA Champions League, English Premier League, and MLS.

But here are some of the sportsbooks that we have reviewed and recommend:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bovada