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English Premier League Preview, Odds & Predictions
Written by: Nick Zanghi
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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We head into Week 12 of the 2023 English Premier League. Tottenham fell to Chelsea by a score of 4-1 leaving no unbeaten teams left. Let’s recap Week 11 really quick.
Manchester United got a much needed 1-0 in on the road vs Fulham. Newcastle took down Arsenal at home also by a score of 1-0. Manchester City absolutely crushed Bournemouth 6-1 and Liverpool and Luton Town ended in a 1-1 draw.
The top 4 spots of the table are still very close. Man City leads with 27 points, followed by Tottenham with 26 points and then Liverpool and Arsenal tied for 3rd with 24 points each.
Aston Villa is hanging around in 5th with 22 points while New Castle is right behind in 6th with 20 points. Brighton and Manchester United are both tied for 7th with 18 points. Still a lot of time to go, but great to see how tight it is at the top.
We went 1-1 on our picks from last week. Manchester City won both halves, but Tottenham unfortunately lost. There are some nice games this weekend for us to find out spots. Let’s take a look at the schedule:
Going into this weekend we have another great set of matchups. Few to highlight are Man United vs Luton Town, Wolverhampton vs Tottenham and Aston Villa vs Fulham.
This is a good spot for Man United as they’re coming off a win in their last EPL game and could use another. Tottenham is also in a good spot for a bounce back vs Wolverhampton. Aston Villa lost their last game and will also be looking to bounce back like Tottenham.
Now this week, we’re going to talk about Arsenal vs Burnley and Liverpool vs Brentford. Let’s get into the best bets for each game and the predictions.
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Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction, Pick and Odds
Prediction and Pick: Game Total Under 2.5 Goals (+168)
Ok so here me out. This seems crazy and I get it, but there is some history here that we need to go over. The last 5 games between these 2 teams have all gone under 2.5. Two of the games ended 1-0 and two of them ended 0-0.
Now granted these games were between 2020 and 2022, but in all of them Arsenal was the better team, and they are now. Interesting fact, only 2 of those 5 games were homes games for Arsenal and they were held scoreless in both games.
Arsenals last 2 games have gone under this mark and Burnley’s last game did as well. Arsenal also has a few injuries on their team with Saka and Nketiah which has slowed them down.
Burnley has been beat up this year by their opponents, but I’m going off the strange history here. We’re going to sprinkle this as it’s plus money and Arsenal could just demolish them.
There will be no in between with this game – it's either soaring over or it’s a snoozefest and easy coin. We’re hoping for the snoozefest.
Odds
Moneyline
- Arsenal -600
- Tie +650
- Burnley +1500
Game Information
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London, England
- Date: Saturday November 11, 2023
- Match Start: 10am EST
- TV: USA
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Liverpool vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Best Bets
Prediction and Pick: Liverpool ML + Mo Salah and Darwin Nunez 1+ Shot on Target Each (+106)
Liverpool is having another great season. These teams split the 2 games they played last year. Liverpool won the most recent game in May 1-0, but Brentford won the game in January 3-1.
With the way each team is playing, I lean Liverpool hard. Them playing at home makes me love it as they’ve won their last 7 home games going back to the beginning of September.
Mo Salah is having another incredible year. I really like for him to score as well, but for the play – we’re going to take just 1 shot on target. It’ll probably be a goal. Nunez is an offensive machine himself.
I expect Liverpool to come out strong right from the beginning. Salah and Nunez will play the biggest role in that, and I think getting that 1 shot on target each should be easy. Getting the shots and winning this game at +106 is more than doable and we’re going to cash it.
Odds
Moneyline
- Liverpool -250
- Tie +410
- Brentford +600
Game Information
- Venue: Anfield Stadium, Liverpool, England
- Date: Sunday November 12, 2023
- Match Start: 9am EST
- TV: Peacock
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Nick Zanghi is an avid hockey fan who loves to bet on the NHL Props. He has also found a liking for the WNBA. Born and raised on LI, NZ is a lifelong Islanders #isles fan and a new NY Liberty fan #LIGHTITUPNYL. When not watching or attending sporting events, he enjoys grilling and time with his wife and kids. Follow NZ on X @_NZeee for more sports betting content.
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