UEFA Champions League Final, Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid: June 1st, 2024

TitleToday is the day. Thee two teams have battled the best of the best all season long, enduring match after match, all the get to this stage right here. The UEFA Champions League Final is upon us, as Borussia Dortmund takes on Real Madrid at Wembley Stadium. Now these teams have not met in a competition for nearly 7 year, with the last meeting coming in 2017.

Madrid has won both the last two matches between these teams, but nevertheless, it is almost meaningless being over a half a decade ago. The focus is now, as Real Madrid look to win their European leading 15th UCL Title and 2nd in the past 3 years. While Borussia Dortmund look to win their 2nd overall, and first since 1997 after losing to Bayern in 2013.

The time is now, the match is upon us, so let’s break down our best bets!

UEFA Champions League Final 2024

Matchup Information – UCL Title Match

• Venue & Location: Wembley Stadium (London, England)
• Date: Saturday, June 1st, 2024
• Kick Off: 2:00pm Eastern
• Where to Watch: CBS

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of BetOnline.

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Money Line

• Borussia Dortmund +380
• Draw +325
• Real Madrid -145

Spread

• Borussia Dortmund +1 (-140)
• Real Madrid -1 (+120)

Total

• Over 2.5 (-145)
• Under 2.5 (+125)

How Will Dortmund Handle Madrid’s Attack?

I feel like Dortmund will be on their heels most of this match. We know how good Real Madrid’s attack is, and how they can score at will. They won LaLiga by 10 points this season, losing just one match all year long. Madrid has scored in literally every single Champions League match they have played this year, averaging 2.16 goals per game in UCL competition. Point being, Dortmund will have their hands full.

Ultimately, I see Madrid having no problem pressing Dortmund all game long, spending most of the on their opponent’s half of the field, and controlling a large majority of the possession clock. And while I see this game being one sided, I do think Dortmund’s back line is more than capable of a fight. Dortmund are coming off a shutout in the Bundesliga, and were able to shutout PSG in both legs of their UCL Semifinal, which is impressive enough in itself. I think Dortmund put a big focus on defense, limiting Madrid’s attack, and saving their offensive efforts for a late counter attack to potentially win.

I’m sorry fans, I see this being a slow, boring game. Just like the last four UCL Titles. The last 4 UCL Title matches have involved 7 different teams, and all ended 1-nil.

UCL Title Match History

• 2023: Manchester City 1-0 Inter Milan
• 2022: Real Madrid 1-0 Liverpool
• 2021: Chelsea 1-0 Manchester City
• 2020: Bayern Munich 1-0 PSG

Even in 2019, we saw the Title match stay under this 2.5 number with Liverpool beating Tottenham 2-nil. Do you see where I am going with this? Now, I am not blindly following a trend, however, I do see a similar play style that happens in the UCL Title match, and I think it continues tonight.

UEFA Champions League Final Best Bets

Best Bets: Under 3 (-128) Bovada

We are getting a reasonable price, push potential, and the piece of mind that this hasn’t missed since 2018. I see this being a 1-nil, possible 2-nil Real Madrid victory, and I don’t see Dortmund scoring.

Now, I also don’t see any value on laying the juice with Madrid, as flukey stuff can certainly happen in soccer. However, potentially taking a live line at halftime could be in play here. To be honest, I somewhat sprayed the board. I have three bets for this singular match today, risking a total of 2U, so lets me spell out exactly where my coins are.

• Under 3 (-128) Bovada: 1u to win 0.78u
• Under 2.5 (+125) BetOnline: 0.5u to win 0.63u
• 1H Under 0.5 (+225) Bovada: 0.5u to win 1.13u

Soccer unders have my heart, and we are backing them again tonight. Not only have the last 5 UCL Title matches stayed under 3 total goals, but 3 of the L4 have been scoreless at halftime. The two anomolies, Kai Havertz scoring the only goal for Chelsea in the 42nd minute, just before halftime. And in 2019, Mo Salah netted a Penalty Kick in the 2nd minute, which seems to be the only goal of the game before Origi sealed the win in the 87th.

These tournament finals seems to be very broing to start, as teams like to spend plenty of time feeling one another out. I see Madrid offensively dominating this game from start to finish, but I trust the Dortmund back line to put up plenty of a fight, and keep them scoreless for the first 45 minutes.

Give me a Vini goal in the 68th minute for a 1-0 Real Madrid victory today at Wembley.

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