UEFA Champions League, Round of 16, 2nd Leg: March 5th, 2024

The UEFA Champions League is back as the Round of 16 starts the second leg of play today! Two teams are set to be eliminated as we get the tournament from 16 teams down to 8 in the next two weeks.

Today in the UCL we have:

• Real Sociedad vs PSG
• Bayern Munich vs Lazio

Let’s break these games down and find our best bets!

Real Sociedad vs PSG

This is the 2nd leg of this matchup, and PSG travels to Spain with a 2-nil lead on aggregate. PSG is running away with the Ligue 1 Title, which they should, and with the departure of Mbappé in the near future, I expect them to have a high focus on the UCL and this game today.

Going on the road up 2-nil, I wholeheartedly expect PSG to sit back and play keep away and kickball. They should try and possess the ball for over 70% of this contest, and I doubt they push to attack. A boring, 90 minute nil-nil draw should be perfectly fine with Paris Saint-Germain, as that would lead to them advancing with little effort.

PSG has gone under 2.5 in 4 straight games, and they are coming off a nil-nil draw at Monaco. On the other hand, Real Sociedad is fighting for their life, and of course they will go down swinging. However I think they are simply outmatched talent-wise, especially putting Sociedad’s Attack against the PSG backline.

PSG can lose this game by 1 goal and still advance. I do not see Sociedad netting 2 goals in this game, at most I see a 1-1 draw.

Give me the under in a game I expect to be very uneventful.

The Pick: Real Sociedad/PSG Under 2.5 (-118) Bovada

Bayern Munich vs Lazio

Bayern Munich is hosting Lazio in their 2nd leg of the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League, and despite being down 1-nil, Bayern is still priced around (-250) to advance. Books are expecting an absolute beat down today.

And to be honest, so am I.

Munich is not going to win the Bundesliga after sitting on top of that league for over a decade. I expect their full focus to be advancing further in the UCL tournament.

Lazio escaped at home with a 1-nil victory in the 1st leg, thanks to a Penalty from Ciro Immobile. Munich will be without defender Dayot Upamecano, but that will not hinder their attack. Plus, Lazio is a different team on the road.

Against SOLID competition, notice how I emphasized a relative adjective, here’s how Lazio has done this season.

Lazio on the Road

• 3-1 L @ Atalanta
• 3-0 L @ Inter Milan
• 2-0 L @ Atlético Madrid
• 3-1 L @ Feyenoord Rotterdam
• 2-0 L @ AC Milan
• 3-1 L @ Juventus
• 1-2 W @ Napoli

That win at Napoli was on September 2nd and was the 3rd game of Serie A play.

Lazio struggles away from home against good competition. Bayern Munich is one of the best teams in the world.

I’m with the books, I think we see a Bayern Beatdown today in Munich. Just a sprinkle on this bet today.

The Pick: Bayern Munich -2.5 (+200) Bovada

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