Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic ATP Finals Prediction & Picks: Djokovic Aims for Record-Breaking Seventh Title

In a month and a half, the 2024 ATP Tour calendar will get underway, with the start of next year’s Australian Open now less than two months away. Today, the curtain will close on the 2023 ATP Tour campaign, as home hero Jannik Sinner will take on Novak Djokovic in the singles final of the 2023 ATP Finals in Turin, Italy.

While Sinner is seeking his first ATP Finals singles title and the most significant title of his young career, Djokovic is seeking what would be a record-breaking seventh ATP Finals title, with he and Roger Federer currently level with six wins.

Sinner reached the final by defeating Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-7 (4-7), 6-1 in Saturday’s first semifinal. Sinner dispatched the 2020 ATP Finals champion in two hours and 25 minutes, shaking off a tiebreak loss in the second set to dominate in the third set.

In the second semifinal, the top two players in the ATP singles rankings met for a place in the final. But instead of another epic Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic match, this year’s Australian Open, French Open, and US Open champion sent the Spanish sensation packing in only 90 minutes in a 6-3, 6-2 win.

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When Sinner and Djokovic met in the group stage of this tournament, they played out a three-hour, 11-minute marathon that ended with the Italian claiming a 7-5, 6-7 (5-7), 7-6 (7-2) win.

Will Sinner be able to replicate Tuesday’s triumph, or will Djokovic break home hearts and add yet another trophy to his hefty haul?

Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic Odds

Odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner +150
• Novak Djokovic -180

Games Spread

• Jannik Sinner -2.5 (-120)
• Novak Djokovic +2.5 (-110)

Total Match Games Over/Under

• Over 24 Games (-115)
• Under 24 Games (-115)

Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic Prediction and Picks

Sinner could not have made a better impression thus far in this tournament, winning his four matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-4, 6-4), Djokovic, Holger Rune (6-2, 5-7, 6-4), and Medvedev.

Over the last four months, Sinner has reached the Wimbledon semis, won three tournaments (Canada Masters, Beijing Open, and Vienna Open), and now made the final in Turin. As a result, he should be a popular pick for the Australian Open.

But first, can he close out a highly successful 2023 campaign with his fifth title of the year and 11th of his career?

Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic Head-to-Head Results

• 11/14/2023 (2023 ATP Finals Group Stage): Sinner won 7-5, 6-7 (5-7), 7-6 (7-2)
• 7/14/2023 (2023 Wimbledon SF): Djokovic won 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 (7-4)
• 7/5/2022 (2022 Wimbledon QF): Djokovic won 5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
• 4/14/2021 (2021 Monte Carlo Masters R32): Djokovic won 6-4, 6-2

This does represent a somewhat decent opportunity to back Djokovic, much like Max Verstappen’s Las Vegas Grand Prix winner odds were in a much more favorable spot than you will typically find. Most other players, you wouldn’t put much consideration into a -180 moneyline, but Djokovic isn’t most players.

That said, I do like Sinner’s chances to pull the upset over Djokovic for the second time in Turin. He knows what it takes to beat Djokovic, and he knows now that he can put in the level of performance required to get the job done.

Obviously, actually getting the job done against Djokovic is a task that often proves to be too difficult for most, and yesterday’s comprehensive win over Alcaraz was quite the statement.

But I think Sinner will be up to the task, and at the very least, he will make Djokovic work for his record-breaking title. Also, for an additional play, I recommend going with over 18.5 aces after the two combined for 35 aces (20 for Djokovic, 15 for Sinner) in their first ATP Finals encounter.

Sinner vs Djokovic Prediction: Sinner to win

Sinner vs Djokovic Picks: Sinner ML (+150 at Bovada) & Sinner/Djokovic over 24 games (-115 at Bovada)

Where to Bet on the 2023 ATP Finals

The odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they are far from the only place out there offering tennis odds. At the top sports betting sites, you can always find odds for the major tennis tournaments.

In addition to Bovada, here are some other online sportsbooks where you can find ATP Finals odds, Australian Open odds, French Open odds, Wimbledon odds, US Open odds, and odds for other notable tournaments:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

There are a number of reputable online sportsbooks that are good for betting on tennis, but we have reviewed all of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of the sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.