Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Australian Open Women’s Semifinal Prediction & Picks: Fade the Favorite?

In September, Coco Gauff had the crowning moment of her still-young career as she rallied from a set down to defeat Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open women’s singles final.

In their first meeting since that match, Gauff will take on Sabalenka tomorrow in the first of the 2024 Australian Open women’s singles semifinals (3:30 am ET, ESPN).

It will be the seventh all-time meeting between Gauff, the #4 seed, and Sabalenka, the #2 seed and reigning Australian Open women’s champion.

In the 21^st century, there have been only three repeat women’s singles champions in Melbourne—Jennifer Capriati (2001 & 2002), Serena Williams (2009 & 2010), and Victoria Azarenka (2012 & 2013)—and there has not been a repeat finalist since Serena made three straight appearances from 2015-17.

But Sabalenka is favored to reach a second straight final, and if she wins, she will be a heavy favorite over the winner of the other semifinal between #12 seed Qinwen Zheng and unseeded Dayana Yastremska.

However, Gauff owns the head-to-head advantage over Sabalenka and will be vying for her fifth win in seven matches against the Belarusian.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline. If you’re interested in trying them out, we recommend checking out our BetOnline review.

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka -205
• Coco Gauff +175

Games Spread

• Aryna Sabalenka -3.5 (-105)
• Coco Gauff +3.5 (-115)

Total Match Games Over/Under

• Over 22.5 Games (+105)
• Under 22.5 Games (-125)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Head-to-Head Results (Gauff Leads 4-2)

• 9/9/2023 (2023 US Open Final – hard): Gauff 2-6, 6-3, 6-2
• 3/15/2023 (2023 Indian Wells QF – hard): Sabalenka 6-4, 6-0
• 8/11/2022 (2022 Canadian Open R16 – hard): Gauff 7-5, 4-6, 7-6 (7-4)
• 5/13/2021 (2021 Italian Open R16 – clay): Gauff 7-5, 6-3
• 10/22/2020 (2020 Ostrava Open R16 – hard): Sabalenka 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 (7-2)
• 8/12/2020 (2020 Top Seed Open R16 – hard): Gauff 7-6 (7-4), 4-6, 6-4

2024 Australian Open Results for Aryna Sabalenka

• QF: def. #9 Barbora Krejcikova 6-2, 6-3
• Round of 16: def. Amanda Anisimova 6-3, 6-2
• Third Round: def. #28 Lesia Tsurenko 6-0, 6-0
• Second Round: def. Brenda Fruhvirtova 6-3, 6-2
• First Round: def. Ella Seidel 6-0, 6-1

2024 Australian Open Results for Coco Gauff

• QF: def. Marta Kostyuk 7-6 (8-6), 6-7 (3-7), 6-2
• Round of 16: def. Magdalena Frech 6-1, 6-2
• Third Round: def. Alycia Parks 6-0, 6-2
• Second Round: def. Caroline Dolehide 7-6 (7-2), 6-2
• First Round: def. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 6-3, 6-0

Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Prediction and Picks

All picks listed below are courtesy of BetOnline. Bet these plays there and get a 100% BONUS on your first cryptocurrency deposit.

Sabalenka vs Gauff Betting Analysis and Prediction

This will be Sabalenka’s sixth straight Grand Slam singles semifinal appearance, a run that started with the 2022 US Open.

To this point, her career record in high-stakes singles semifinals isn’t overly inspiring. In Grand Slams and WTA 1000 events, she is just 9-11 in the semis, including a 2-5 record in Grand Slam semis.

Her record against Gauff isn’t overly inspiring either, which makes the odds here a little surprising. That Sabalenka is the favorite isn’t a surprise given that she is the higher seed and the more experienced player. But the margins should be a bit finer here, especially with the head-to-head history in mind.

Gauff is nowhere near her final form, but at her present level, she is one of the few players Sabalenka can’t pummel or frustrate into submission.

That was on display in September, when she broke Gauff three times in the first set, then had two break points in the first game of the second set. Gauff saved those two break points, and the tide turned from there.

Since Sofia Kenin upset her in the first round of Wimbledon last July, Gauff is 34-4 with four titles in seven completed tournaments. She has lost twice to Jessica Pegula (Canadian Open semis and WTA Finals semis), her regular doubles partner, and twice to Iga Swiatek (China Open semis and WTA Finals round robin stage), the current world number one.

Sabalenka is on a nice run herself, with a 65-15 record since the start of 2023. But since defeating Swiatek in the Madrid Open final last April, she is 2-4 in semifinals, with losses at the French Open, Wimbledon, the Cincinnati Open, and the WTA Finals and wins at the US Open and this month’s Australian Open tune-up in Brisbane.

Sabalenka vs Gauff Betting Picks

Gauff ML and Gauff +3.5

Sabalenka is a worthy favorite here, but her record in semifinals and against Gauff, along with Gauff’s incredible run over the last several months, have me firmly on the other side.

Where to Bet on the 2024 Australian Open

The odds mentioned in this article came from BetOnline, but they are far from the only place out there offering tennis odds. At the top sports betting sites, you can always find odds for the major tennis tournaments.

In addition to BetOnline, here are some other online sportsbooks where you can find ATP Finals odds, Australian Open odds, French Open odds, Wimbledon odds, US Open odds, and odds for other notable tournaments:

• BetDSI
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• Bovada
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

There are a number of reputable online sportsbooks that are good for betting on tennis, but we have reviewed all of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of the sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.

Want to Learn More About Tennis Betting?

If you are looking to learn more about how to bet on tennis, where to bet on tennis, this year’s most important tennis tournaments, and the top men’s and women’s singles tennis players, check out our handy tennis betting guide.