Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev US Open QF Prediction & Picks: Strap In for Another Five-Setter?

Twice this year, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev have met in Grand Slam tournaments. And in both meetings, they played epic five-set matches that lasted almost four hours. Is another classic clash ahead in tonight’s US Open quarterfinal matchup (8:30 pm ET, ESPN)?

In February, Sinner and Medvedev met in the final of the Australian Open, and Medvedev claimed the first two sets in a match that would last three hours and 46 minutes. However, Sinner rallied for a 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 victory to become the first Italian to win a Grand Slam men’s singles title since 1976.

After Sinner missed the French Open due to injury, they met again in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, where Medvedev prevailed 6-7 (7-9), 6-4, 7-6 (7-4), 2-6, 6-3 in three hours and 54 minutes.

As was the case in that matchup, Sinner is the #1 seed and Medvedev is the #5 seed in the US Open men’s singles draw. They are the two highest-remaining seeds, and the winner of tonight’s match at Arthur Ashe Stadium will be firmly favored to see off first-time Grand Slam semifinalist and #25 seed Jack Draper and advance to Sunday’s final, which will feature either #12 seed Taylor Fritz or #20 seed Frances Tiafoe.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

Odds to Win the Match

• Jannik Sinner -280
• Daniil Medvedev +235

Games Spread

• Jannik Sinner -4.5 (+100)
• Daniil Medvedev +4.5 (-120)

Total Match Games

• Over 39.5 Games (-110)
• Under 39.5 Games (-110)

2024 US Open Results for Jannik Sinner

• First Round: defeated Mackenzie McDonald 2-6, 6-2, 6-1, 6-2
• Second Round: defeated Alex Michelsen 6-4, 6-0, 6-2
• Third Round: defeated Christopher O’Connell 6-1, 6-4, 6-2
• Round of 16: defeated #14 Tommy Paul 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (7-5), 6-1

2024 US Open Results for Daniil Medvedev

• First Round: defeated Dusan Lajovic 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-1
• Second Round: defeated Fabian Marozsan 6-3, 6-2, 7-6 (7-5)
• Third Round: defeated #31 Flavio Cobolli 6-3, 6-4, 6-3
• Round of 16: defeated Nuno Borges 6-0, 6-1, 6-3

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head Results (Medvedev 7-5)

Last Five Matches

• 7/9/2024 (2024 Wimbledon – grass): Medvedev 6-7 (7-9), 6-4, 7-6 (7-4), 2-6, 6-3
• 3/29/2024 (2024 Miami Open – hard): Sinner 6-2, 6-1
• 1/28/2024 (2024 Australian Open – hard): Sinner 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3
• 11/18/2023 (2023 ATP Finals – hard): Sinner 6-3, 6-7 (5-7), 6-1
• 10/29/2023 (2023 Vienna Open – indoor hard): Sinner 7-6 (9-7), 4-6, 6-3

Sinner vs Medvedev Betting Analysis

Sinner entered the US Open with a cloud hanging over him following the news that he tested positive for a banned substance earlier this year.

But he has put his head down and shaken off the controversy to reach the last eight in a Grand Slam for the third time this year. He had an ugly start to the tournament, losing the opening set of his opening match against Mackenzie McDonald, but he has since won a dozen straight sets.

Like Sinner, Medvedev dropped a set in the first round, but he has won 11 straight sets since doing so. In the fourth round, he ruthlessly ran through Nuno Borges in just 108 minutes, breaking Borges’ serve eight times in 11 games.

That was a stark contrast to their fourth-round match at this year’ s Australian Open, which was a hard-fought 6-3, 7-6 (7-4), 5-7, 6-1 win for Medvedev. It was also a contrast to their meeting in the round of 32 at the Halle Open in June, a 7-6 (7-4), 6-4 win for Medvedev.

With the rise of Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, the continued excellence of Novak Djokovic, and his own issues with making the most of some of his opportunities, Medvedev has yet to add to the title he won at the 2021 US Open.

But his strong performances in this tournament are encouraging, and he will enter tonight’s showdown with Sinner confident in his chances to reach the US Open semifinals for the fifth time in six years.

Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction & Picks

Sinner may be the clear favorite with oddsmakers, but this match is more of a toss-up than the odds would seem to indicate.

Expect no fewer than four sets, and if you have an early bedtime, you might not want to tune in, as there’s a good chance it will go past midnight.

But who will come out on top and move on to face semifinal debutant Draper? It must be said that Sinner wasn’t 100% when he lost to Medvedev at Wimbledon, so there’s a good chance he would have a 2-0 advantage in Grand Slams this year.

Medvedev may well push him to the max once again, but this time around, the world number one will be able to seal the deal.

Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction: Sinner to win

Sinner vs Medvedev Picks: Sinner/Medvedev over 39.5 games

Other Tennis Betting Information

Where to Bet on the US Open

The odds mentioned in this article came from BetOnline, but they are far from the only place out there offering odds for the US Open or other tennis tournaments. At the top sports betting sites, you can always find odds for the major tennis tournaments.

In addition to BetOnline, here are some other online sportsbooks where you can find ATP Finals odds, Australian Open odds, French Open odds, US Open odds, Wimbledon odds, and odds for other notable tournaments:

• BetDSI (review)
• BetUS (review)
• Bookmaker (review)
• Bovada (review)
• MyBookie (review)
• Sportsbetting.ag (review)

There are a number of reputable online sportsbooks that are good for betting on tennis, but we have reviewed all of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of the sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.

Want to Learn More About Tennis Betting?

If you are looking to learn more about how to bet on tennis, where to bet on tennis, this year’s most important tennis tournaments, and the top men’s and women’s singles tennis players, check out our handy tennis betting guide.